Independ. Rivadavia 1–1 Instituto Cordoba

Independ. Rivadavia

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Instituto Cordoba

S. Villa 25'

D. Puebla 18'

9/28/2024

Liga Profesional Argentina · 2nd Phase - 16Estadio Juan Bautista Gargantini

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 14+ matches

Independ. Rivadavia37%

×Draw31%

Instituto Cordoba33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Independ. RivadaviaExpected goals in this matchInstituto Cordoba

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.05

0.98

Independ. Rivadavia

1.05

Instituto Cordoba

0.98

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 22 home / 14 away

1.05

creates per match

0.95

1.01

allows per match

1.05

creates per match

Independ. Rivadavia

1.05

Instituto Cordoba

0.95

allows per match

Independ. Rivadavia

1.01

Instituto Cordoba

1.05

-0.32scores less than expected

finishing

-0.31scores less than expected

finishing

Independ. Rivadavia-0.32scores less

Instituto Cordoba-0.31scores less

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independ. Rivadavia ↓

Instituto Cordoba →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–113%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–014%

1–114%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Independ. Rivadavia or draw

67%

Independ. Rivadavia or Instituto Cordoba

69%

Draw or Instituto Cordoba

63%

Winning margin

Independ. Rivadavia wins by 2+

14%

Instituto Cordoba wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Independ. Rivadavia 1+ goals

65%

Independ. Rivadavia 2+ goals

28%

Independ. Rivadavia 3+ goals

9%

Instituto Cordoba 1+ goals

62%

Instituto Cordoba 2+ goals

26%

Instituto Cordoba 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Independ. Rivadavia (draw refunded)

53%

Instituto Cordoba (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independ. Rivadavia at home — creates 1.05, concedes 1.01 · 22 matches

Instituto Cordoba away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.05 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independ. Rivadavia attack 1.05 + Instituto Cordoba defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.05

Instituto Cordoba attack 0.95 + Independ. Rivadavia defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Independ. Rivadavia scores more

37%

level

31%

Instituto Cordoba scores more

33%

Independ. Rivadavia at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Independ. Rivadavia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

28

M. Roffo

Instituto Cordoba · G

8.2

Match Events

18'

25'

47'

57'

59'

Ezequiel Ham← L. Ríos

59'

J. Sanguina← J. Cavallaro

65'

F. Suárez← I. Russo

65'

D. Batallini← D. Puebla

76'

J. Acevedo

76'

D. Tonetto← L. Sequeira

76'

G. Ríos← G. Álvez

81'

F. Lo Celso← G. Lodico

82'

B. Cuello← G. Rodríguez

83'

L. Abecasis← M. Ruíz Díaz

84'

J. Franco

90+4'

J. Bay

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Independ.Instituto

Overview

51%Possession49%

16Total Shots16

1.15Expected Goals (xG)0.52

8Corners2

13Fouls15

Shots

16Total Shots16

8On Target3

6Off Target6

2Blocked7

8Inside Box4

8Outside Box12

Passing

51%Possession49%

315Total Passes322

227Accurate Passes236

72%Pass Accuracy73%

Goalkeeping

2Saves6

-0.26Goals Prevented-0.26

Discipline

13Fouls15

1Yellow Cards2

3Offsides0

Match Recap: Independ. Rivadavia vs Instituto Cordoba

Independ. Rivadavia and Instituto Cordoba drew 1-1 in Liga Profesional Argentina on September 28, 2024.

Goals: D. Puebla (18'), S. Villa (25').

Independ. Rivadavia controlled possession (51%) and registered 16 shots to 16.

The match was played at Estadio Juan Bautista Gargantini in Mendoza, Provincia de Mendoza.

Independ. Rivadavia vs Instituto Cordoba — Liga Profesional Argentina 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Independ. Rivadavia vs Instituto Cordoba