Independ. Rivadavia 2–1 Instituto Cordoba

Independ. Rivadavia

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Instituto Cordoba

S. Navarro 68'

E. Martínez 60'

J. Molina 22'

10/3/2021

Primera Nacional · Round 28Estadio Juan Bautista Gargantini

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 72+ matches

Independ. Rivadavia45%

×Draw28%

Instituto Cordoba27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Independ. RivadaviaExpected goals in this matchInstituto Cordoba

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

0.93

Independ. Rivadavia

1.29

Instituto Cordoba

0.93

Independ. Rivadavia creates 39% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 72 away

1.48

creates per match

0.92

0.93

allows per match

1.10

creates per match

Independ. Rivadavia

1.48

Instituto Cordoba

0.92

allows per match

Independ. Rivadavia

0.93

Instituto Cordoba

1.10

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Independ. Rivadavia+0.00on par

Instituto Cordoba+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independ. Rivadavia ↓

Instituto Cordoba →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–110%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Independ. Rivadavia or draw

73%

Independ. Rivadavia or Instituto Cordoba

72%

Draw or Instituto Cordoba

55%

Winning margin

Independ. Rivadavia wins by 2+

20%

Instituto Cordoba wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Independ. Rivadavia 1+ goals

72%

Independ. Rivadavia 2+ goals

37%

Independ. Rivadavia 3+ goals

14%

Instituto Cordoba 1+ goals

61%

Instituto Cordoba 2+ goals

24%

Instituto Cordoba 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Independ. Rivadavia (draw refunded)

63%

Instituto Cordoba (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independ. Rivadavia at home — creates 1.48, concedes 0.93 · 96 matches

Instituto Cordoba away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.10 · 72 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independ. Rivadavia attack 1.48 + Instituto Cordoba defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.29

Instituto Cordoba attack 0.92 + Independ. Rivadavia defence 0.93 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Independ. Rivadavia scores more

45%

level

28%

Instituto Cordoba scores more

27%

Independ. Rivadavia at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Independ. Rivadavia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'

J. Molina

46'

D. Cardozo← S. Mayorga

60'

E. Martínez

62'

T. Allende← G. Villarruel

66'

S. Navarro← D. Imperiale

68'

S. Navarro

71'

M. Vera← J. Arzura

71'

M. Comachi← J. Molina

73'

D. Cardozo

78'

L. Ambrogio← M. Asenjo

84'

P. Palacio← E. Martínez

86'

I. Huguenet← R. Mazur

Independ.

Instituto

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Martínez

▼

Asenjo

Manager: G. Gómez

46'▲D. Cardozo←▼S. Mayorga

66'▲S. Navarro←▼D. Imperiale

78'▲L. Ambrogio←▼M. Asenjo

84'▲P. Palacio←▼E. Martínez

Independ. Rivadavia substitutes

CardozoNavarroAmbrogioPalacioAraujoAtencioBertiSuraciSosa

Manager: C. Sarría

62'▲T. Allende←▼G. Villarruel

71'▲M. Vera←▼J. Arzura

71'▲M. Comachi←▼J. Molina

86'▲I. Huguenet←▼R. Mazur

Instituto Cordoba substitutes

AllendeVeraComachiHuguenetCuelloReynosoPetruchiFaurlinEndrizzi

Match Recap: Independ. Rivadavia vs Instituto Cordoba

Independ. Rivadavia beat Instituto Cordoba 2-1 in Primera Nacional on October 3, 2021.

Goals: J. Molina (22'), E. Martínez (60'), S. Navarro (68').

The match was played at Estadio Juan Bautista Gargantini in Mendoza, Provincia de Mendoza.

Independ. Rivadavia vs Instituto Cordoba — Primera Nacional 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Independ. Rivadavia vs Instituto Cordoba