Independ. Rivadavia 1–1 Fluminense: Result & Stats

Independ. Rivadavia

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Fluminense

A. Arce 66'

John Kennedy 90'

5/7/2026

CONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 4Estadio Malvinas Argentinas

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Independ. Rivadavia50%

×Draw26%

Fluminense24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Independ. RivadaviaExpected goals in this matchFluminense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

0.94

Independ. Rivadavia

1.50

Fluminense

0.94

Independ. Rivadavia creates 60% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 20 away

2.00

creates per match

1.20

0.67

allows per match

1.00

creates per match

Independ. Rivadavia

2.00

Fluminense

1.20

allows per match

Independ. Rivadavia

0.67

Fluminense

1.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Independ. Rivadavia+0.00on par

Fluminense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Independ. Rivadavia ↓

Fluminense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Independ. Rivadavia or draw

76%

Independ. Rivadavia or Fluminense

74%

Draw or Fluminense

50%

Winning margin

Independ. Rivadavia wins by 2+

25%

Fluminense wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Independ. Rivadavia 1+ goals

78%

Independ. Rivadavia 2+ goals

44%

Independ. Rivadavia 3+ goals

19%

Fluminense 1+ goals

61%

Fluminense 2+ goals

24%

Fluminense 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Independ. Rivadavia (draw refunded)

68%

Fluminense (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Independ. Rivadavia at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.67 · 3 matches

Fluminense away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.00 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Independ. Rivadavia attack 2.00 + Fluminense defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Fluminense attack 1.20 + Independ. Rivadavia defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Independ. Rivadavia scores more

50%

level

26%

Fluminense scores more

24%

Independ. Rivadavia at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Independ. Rivadavia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

22

S. Villa

Independ. Rivadavia · M

7.5

Match Events

37'

T. Bottari

38'

Hercules

45+1'

L. Acosta

63'

J. I. Florentin Bobadilla

63'

Nonato

66'

A. Arce↳ L. Gomez

69'

Guga

78'

Alisson← Nonato

78'

John Kennedy← Hercules

78'

Y. Soteldo← J. Savarino

79'

I. Villalba← A. Arce

80'

L. Zubeldia

82'

A. Osella← E. Bonifacio

82'

J. M. Elordi← L. Gomez

82'

K. Serna← A. Canobbio

86'

L. Bucca← M. Fernandez

86'

G. Rios← F. Sartori

90'

John Kennedy

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Independ.Fluminense

Overview

28%Possession72%

15Total Shots11

1.34Expected Goals (xG)0.75

6Corners2

13Fouls14

Shots

15Total Shots11

3On Target2

8Off Target7

4Blocked2

11Inside Box10

4Outside Box1

Passing

28%Possession72%

221Total Passes612

158Accurate Passes550

71%Pass Accuracy90%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

0.04Goals Prevented0.04

Discipline

13Fouls14

2Yellow Cards4

3Offsides0

CONMEBOL Libertadores: Independ. Rivadavia 1–1 Fluminense

Independ. Rivadavia and Fluminense drew 1-1 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on May 7, 2026.

Goals: A. Arce (66'), John Kennedy (90').

Fluminense controlled possession (72%) and registered 11 shots to 15.

The match was played at Estadio Malvinas Argentinas in Mendoza.

Independ. Rivadavia vs Fluminense — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CONMEBOL Libertadores: Independ. Rivadavia 1–1 Fluminense