Fluminense 1–2 Independ. Rivadavia: Result & Stats

Fluminense

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Independ. Rivadavia

Guilherme Arana 10'

A. Arce 51'

F. Sartori 37'

4/16/2026

CONMEBOL Libertadores · Group Stage - 2Estádio do Maracanã

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Fluminense32%

×Draw22%

Independ. Rivadavia46%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

FluminenseExpected goals in this matchIndepend. Rivadavia

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.98

Fluminense

1.64

Independ. Rivadavia

1.98

Independ. Rivadavia creates 21% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 3 away

1.95

creates per match

3.00

0.95

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Fluminense

1.95

Independ. Rivadavia

3.00

allows per match

Fluminense

0.95

Independ. Rivadavia

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Fluminense+0.00on par

Independ. Rivadavia+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fluminense ↓

Independ. Rivadavia →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

70%30%3.5

49%51%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Fluminense or draw

54%

Fluminense or Independ. Rivadavia

78%

Draw or Independ. Rivadavia

68%

Winning margin

Fluminense wins by 2+

16%

Independ. Rivadavia wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Fluminense 1+ goals

81%

Fluminense 2+ goals

49%

Fluminense 3+ goals

23%

Independ. Rivadavia 1+ goals

86%

Independ. Rivadavia 2+ goals

59%

Independ. Rivadavia 3+ goals

31%

Draw no bet

Fluminense (draw refunded)

41%

Independ. Rivadavia (draw refunded)

59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fluminense at home — creates 1.95, concedes 0.95 · 20 matches

Independ. Rivadavia away — creates 3.00, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fluminense attack 1.95 + Independ. Rivadavia defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.64

Independ. Rivadavia attack 3.00 + Fluminense defence 0.95 → ÷2 → 1.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Fluminense scores more

32%

level

22%

Independ. Rivadavia scores more

46%

Independ. Rivadavia at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Independ. Rivadavia will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

1

N. Bolcato

Independ. Rivadavia · G

7.3

Match Events

10'

Guilherme Arana↳ J. Savarino

17'

33'

37'

46'

51'

A. Arce↳ S. Villa

66'

66'

68'

74'

74'

J. M. Elordi← E. Bonifacio

77'

John Kennedy← Ignacio

81'

Wesley Nata← A. Canobbio

81'

L. Bucca← A. Arce

81'

G. Rios← M. Fernandez

84'

Wesley Nata

87'

I. Villalba← F. Sartori

89'

N. Bolcato

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

FluminenseIndepend.

Overview

71%Possession29%

21Total Shots7

1.14Expected Goals (xG)1.01

1Corners1

10Fouls12

Shots

21Total Shots7

9On Target4

10Off Target3

2Blocked0

12Inside Box5

9Outside Box2

Passing

71%Possession29%

616Total Passes246

535Accurate Passes165

87%Pass Accuracy67%

Goalkeeping

2Saves8

0.20Goals Prevented0.20

Discipline

10Fouls12

1Yellow Cards4

Match Recap: Fluminense vs Independ. Rivadavia

Independ. Rivadavia beat Fluminense 2-1 in CONMEBOL Libertadores on April 16, 2026.

Goals: Guilherme Arana (10'), F. Sartori (37'), A. Arce (51').

Fluminense controlled possession (71%) and registered 21 shots to 7.

The match was played at Estádio do Maracanã in Rio de Janeiro.

Fluminense vs Independ. Rivadavia — CONMEBOL Libertadores 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: Fluminense vs Independ. Rivadavia