Incheon United vs Sangju Sangmu FC — K League 1 2026
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 101+ matches
Incheon United37%
Sangju Sangmu FC35%✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Both teams create about equally
Season form · 119 home / 101 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under57
- Over43
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No51
- Yes49
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Incheon United ↓
Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Incheon United at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.11 · 119 matches
Sangju Sangmu FC away — creates 1.24, concedes 1.35 · 101 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Incheon United attack 1.11 + Sangju Sangmu FC defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.23
Sangju Sangmu FC attack 1.24 + Incheon United defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.18
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 37%?"
Incheon United at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 37% does not mean "Incheon United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Incheon United host Sangju Sangmu FC on Wednesday, 11 April 2018 at 10:30. The match is part of the K League 1 2026/2027 season.
Match Recap: Incheon United vs Sangju Sangmu FC
Sangju Sangmu FC beat Incheon United 1-0 in K League 1 on April 11, 2018.
Goals: Lim Chae-Min (90+3' pen).
The match was played at Sungui Arena Park (Incheon).