Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Gimcheon Sangmu FC vs Incheon United — K League 1 2026

Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Incheon United
Incheon United
9/15/2024K League 1K League 1 · Round 30Gimcheon Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 119+ matches

Gimcheon Sangmu FC42%
×Draw26%
Incheon United32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gimcheon Sangmu FC
1.39
Incheon United
1.17

Gimcheon Sangmu FC creates 19% more chances

Season form · 119 home / 136 away

creates per match

Gimcheon Sangmu FC
1.32
Incheon United
1.16

allows per match

Gimcheon Sangmu FC
1.19
Incheon United
1.46

finishing

Gimcheon Sangmu FC+0.00on par
Incheon United+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gimcheon Sangmu FC ↓

Incheon United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Gimcheon Sangmu FC or draw
68%
Gimcheon Sangmu FC or Incheon United
74%
Draw or Incheon United
58%

Winning margin

Gimcheon Sangmu FC wins by 2+
20%
Incheon United wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1+ goals
75%
Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2+ goals
40%
Gimcheon Sangmu FC 3+ goals
16%
Incheon United 1+ goals
69%
Incheon United 2+ goals
33%
Incheon United 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Gimcheon Sangmu FC (draw refunded)
57%
Incheon United (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gimcheon Sangmu FC at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.19 · 119 matches

Incheon United away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.46 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 1.32 + Incheon United defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.39

Incheon United attack 1.16 + Gimcheon Sangmu FC defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Gimcheon Sangmu FC scores more
42%
level
26%
Incheon United scores more
32%

Gimcheon Sangmu FC at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Gimcheon Sangmu FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

K League 1: Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2–0 Incheon United

Gimcheon Sangmu FC beat Incheon United 2-0 in K League 1 on September 15, 2024.

The match was played at Gimcheon Stadium in Gimcheon.