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Incheon United vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC — FA Cup 2019

Incheon United
Incheon Unitedadvanced
Pens
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
6/19/2024FA CupFA Cup · Round of 16Sungui Arena Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Incheon United30%
×Draw24%
Gimcheon Sangmu FC46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Incheon United
1.29
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
1.66

Gimcheon Sangmu FC creates 29% more chances

Season form · 7 home / 5 away

creates per match

Incheon United
1.57
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
1.60

allows per match

Incheon United
1.71
Gimcheon Sangmu FC
1.00

finishing

Incheon United+0.00on par
Gimcheon Sangmu FC+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Incheon United ↓

Gimcheon Sangmu FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–19%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Incheon United or draw
54%
Incheon United or Gimcheon Sangmu FC
76%
Draw or Gimcheon Sangmu FC
70%

Winning margin

Incheon United wins by 2+
13%
Gimcheon Sangmu FC wins by 2+
24%

Team goals

Incheon United 1+ goals
72%
Incheon United 2+ goals
37%
Incheon United 3+ goals
14%
Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1+ goals
81%
Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2+ goals
49%
Gimcheon Sangmu FC 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Incheon United (draw refunded)
39%
Gimcheon Sangmu FC (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Incheon United at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.71 · 7 matches

Gimcheon Sangmu FC away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Incheon United attack 1.57 + Gimcheon Sangmu FC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.29

Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 1.60 + Incheon United defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Incheon United scores more
30%
level
24%
Gimcheon Sangmu FC scores more
46%

Gimcheon Sangmu FC at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Gimcheon Sangmu FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

FA Cup: Incheon United 0–0 Gimcheon Sangmu FC

Incheon United and Gimcheon Sangmu FC drew 0-0 in FA Cup on June 19, 2024.

The match was played at Sungui Arena Park in Incheon.