Incheon United vs Gimcheon Sangmu FC

Incheon United

Preview

10:30

Gimcheon Sangmu FC

8/16/2026

K League 1 · Round 23Sungui Arena Park

Big match

37%

Incheon United

model favours

37%28%35%

Even after scoring first, Gimcheon Sangmu FC win only 40%

brightest fact of this match

1–1

likely score

57%

under 2.5 goals

49%

both teams score

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 117+ matches

Incheon United37%

×Draw28%

Gimcheon Sangmu FC35%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Incheon UnitedExpected goals in this matchGimcheon Sangmu FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.19

Incheon United

1.22

Gimcheon Sangmu FC

1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 136 home / 117 away

1.06

creates per match

1.23

1.15

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Incheon United

1.06

Gimcheon Sangmu FC

1.23

allows per match

Incheon United

1.15

Gimcheon Sangmu FC

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Incheon United+0.00on par

Gimcheon Sangmu FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under57
Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Incheon United ↓

Gimcheon Sangmu FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

43%57%3.5

22%78%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Incheon United or draw

65%

Incheon United or Gimcheon Sangmu FC

72%

Draw or Gimcheon Sangmu FC

63%

Winning margin

Incheon United wins by 2+

16%

Gimcheon Sangmu FC wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Incheon United 1+ goals

70%

Incheon United 2+ goals

34%

Incheon United 3+ goals

12%

Gimcheon Sangmu FC 1+ goals

70%

Gimcheon Sangmu FC 2+ goals

33%

Gimcheon Sangmu FC 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Incheon United (draw refunded)

51%

Gimcheon Sangmu FC (draw refunded)

49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Incheon United at home — creates 1.06, concedes 1.15 · 136 matches

Gimcheon Sangmu FC away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.38 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Incheon United attack 1.06 + Gimcheon Sangmu FC defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.22

Gimcheon Sangmu FC attack 1.23 + Incheon United defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Incheon United scores more

37%

level

28%

Gimcheon Sangmu FC scores more

35%

Incheon United at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Incheon United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Insights

Style contrast — Incheon United play Possession-dominant, Gimcheon Sangmu FC Attack-heavy
33% of Gimcheon Sangmu FC’s goals come after the 75th minute
Gimcheon Sangmu FC fall short of their xG (2.0 vs 2.5 expected)

Based on historical data — not a prediction.

Style Matchup

Contrasting styles

Incheon United

Possession-dominant

Gimcheon Sangmu FC

Attack-heavy

63%Possession57%

86%Pass accuracy85%

9.5ShotsBiggest gap14.2

—xG2.54

Incheon UnitedGimcheon Sangmu FC

Head-to-head

10 previous meetings

4

Incheon United

3

Draws

3

Gimcheon Sangmu FC

Avg goals: 2.1BTTS: 40%

3–02–10–21–10–0

Playing styles from match stats. Historical H2H record. Not a prediction.

Form

United

LLWL

FC

DDLD

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff