Înainte Modelu 3–1 Axiopolis: Result & Stats

Înainte Modelu

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 0

Axiopolis

12/6/2024

Liga III - Serie 3 · Group 3 - 15Stadionul Vasile Enache

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Înainte Modelu51%

×Draw21%

Axiopolis28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Înainte ModeluExpected goals in this matchAxiopolis

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.10

1.51

Înainte Modelu

2.10

Axiopolis

1.51

Înainte Modelu creates 39% more chances

Season form · 61 home / 52 away

2.08

creates per match

1.69

1.33

allows per match

2.12

creates per match

Înainte Modelu

2.08

Axiopolis

1.69

allows per match

Înainte Modelu

1.33

Axiopolis

2.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Înainte Modelu+0.00on par

Axiopolis+0.00on par

Total goals

Over70
Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Înainte Modelu ↓

Axiopolis →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

70%30%3.5

48%52%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Înainte Modelu or draw

72%

Înainte Modelu or Axiopolis

79%

Draw or Axiopolis

49%

Winning margin

Înainte Modelu wins by 2+

30%

Axiopolis wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Înainte Modelu 1+ goals

88%

Înainte Modelu 2+ goals

62%

Înainte Modelu 3+ goals

35%

Axiopolis 1+ goals

78%

Axiopolis 2+ goals

44%

Axiopolis 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

Înainte Modelu (draw refunded)

65%

Axiopolis (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

60%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Înainte Modelu at home — creates 2.08, concedes 1.33 · 61 matches

Axiopolis away — creates 1.69, concedes 2.12 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Înainte Modelu attack 2.08 + Axiopolis defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 2.10

Axiopolis attack 1.69 + Înainte Modelu defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.51

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Înainte Modelu scores more

51%

level

21%

Axiopolis scores more

28%

Înainte Modelu at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Înainte Modelu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff