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Axiopolis vs Înainte Modelu — Liga III - Serie 3 2020

Axiopolis
Axiopolis
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 0
Înainte Modelu
Înainte Modelu
11/21/2025Liga III - Serie 3Liga III - Serie 3 · Group 3 - 14Stadionul Ideal Cernavoda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Axiopolis50%
×Draw23%
Înainte Modelu27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Axiopolis
1.88
Înainte Modelu
1.33

Axiopolis creates 41% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 62 away

creates per match

Axiopolis
1.90
Înainte Modelu
1.08

allows per match

Axiopolis
1.59
Înainte Modelu
1.85

finishing

Axiopolis+0.00on par
Înainte Modelu+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Axiopolis ↓

Înainte Modelu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Axiopolis or draw
73%
Axiopolis or Înainte Modelu
77%
Draw or Înainte Modelu
50%

Winning margin

Axiopolis wins by 2+
28%
Înainte Modelu wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Axiopolis 1+ goals
85%
Axiopolis 2+ goals
56%
Axiopolis 3+ goals
29%
Înainte Modelu 1+ goals
74%
Înainte Modelu 2+ goals
38%
Înainte Modelu 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Axiopolis (draw refunded)
65%
Înainte Modelu (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Axiopolis at home — creates 1.90, concedes 1.59 · 51 matches

Înainte Modelu away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.85 · 62 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Axiopolis attack 1.90 + Înainte Modelu defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.88

Înainte Modelu attack 1.08 + Axiopolis defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Axiopolis scores more
50%
level
23%
Înainte Modelu scores more
27%

Axiopolis at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Axiopolis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Axiopolis vs Înainte Modelu

Înainte Modelu beat Axiopolis 3-1 in Liga III - Serie 3 on November 21, 2025.

The match was played at Stadionul Ideal Cernavoda in Cernavodă.