IMT Novi Beograd 0–3 Vojvodina: Result & Stats

IMT Novi Beograd

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Vojvodina

C. Zady Sery 69', 52'

M. Poletanović 65' (pen)

9/22/2024

Super Liga · Round 9Stadion Lagator

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

IMT Novi Beograd35%

×Draw27%

Vojvodina39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IMT Novi BeogradExpected goals in this matchVojvodina

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.32

IMT Novi Beograd

1.23

Vojvodina

1.32

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 58 home / 146 away

1.21

creates per match

1.36

1.28

allows per match

1.26

creates per match

IMT Novi Beograd

1.21

Vojvodina

1.36

allows per match

IMT Novi Beograd

1.28

Vojvodina

1.26

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

IMT Novi Beograd+0.00on par

Vojvodina+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IMT Novi Beograd ↓

Vojvodina →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

IMT Novi Beograd or draw

61%

IMT Novi Beograd or Vojvodina

73%

Draw or Vojvodina

65%

Winning margin

IMT Novi Beograd wins by 2+

15%

Vojvodina wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

IMT Novi Beograd 1+ goals

71%

IMT Novi Beograd 2+ goals

35%

IMT Novi Beograd 3+ goals

13%

Vojvodina 1+ goals

73%

Vojvodina 2+ goals

38%

Vojvodina 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

IMT Novi Beograd (draw refunded)

47%

Vojvodina (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IMT Novi Beograd at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.28 · 58 matches

Vojvodina away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.26 · 146 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IMT Novi Beograd attack 1.21 + Vojvodina defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.23

Vojvodina attack 1.36 + IMT Novi Beograd defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

IMT Novi Beograd scores more

35%

level

27%

Vojvodina scores more

39%

Vojvodina at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Vojvodina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

14

C. Zady Sery

Vojvodina · M

9.2

Match Events

33'

Luka Krstović

46'

L. Luković← L. Krstović

52'

C. Zady Sery↳ B. Yusuf

56'

N. Glišić← M. Spremo

56'

M. Poletanović← V. Savićević

56'

M. Veličković← D. Kokanović

59'

Alen Stevanović

59'

Mihai Butean

63'

Njegoš PetrovićPenalty confirmed

65'

M. PoletanovićPenalty

68'

O. Lebi← A. Stevanović

68'

A. Lutovac← U. Bonnet

69'

C. Zady Sery↳ D. Rosić

73'

P. Sukacev← A. Radulović

73'

Depú← B. Yusuf

84'

B. Billups← I. Zulfić

84'

S. Medojević← N. Petrović

88'

Yoann Court

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IMTVojvodina

Overview

38%Possession62%

6Total Shots14

2Corners9

17Fouls12

Shots

6Total Shots14

1On Target6

4Off Target5

1Blocked3

2Inside Box9

4Outside Box5

Passing

38%Possession62%

278Total Passes458

182Accurate Passes375

65%Pass Accuracy82%

Goalkeeping

3Saves1

Discipline

17Fouls12

3Yellow Cards1

0Offsides4