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IMT Novi Beograd vs Radnicki 1923 — Friendlies Clubs 2026

IMT Novi Beograd
IMT Novi Beograd
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 2
Radnicki 1923
Radnicki 1923
1/18/2024Friendlies ClubsFriendlies Clubs · Club Friendlies 3Stadion Event Place

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

IMT Novi Beograd40%
×Draw25%
Radnicki 192335%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

IMT Novi Beograd
1.44
Radnicki 1923
1.34

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 7 home / 6 away

creates per match

IMT Novi Beograd
0.71
Radnicki 1923
0.83

allows per match

IMT Novi Beograd
1.86
Radnicki 1923
2.17

finishing

IMT Novi Beograd+0.00on par
Radnicki 1923+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IMT Novi Beograd ↓

Radnicki 1923 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

IMT Novi Beograd or draw
65%
IMT Novi Beograd or Radnicki 1923
75%
Draw or Radnicki 1923
60%

Winning margin

IMT Novi Beograd wins by 2+
19%
Radnicki 1923 wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

IMT Novi Beograd 1+ goals
76%
IMT Novi Beograd 2+ goals
42%
IMT Novi Beograd 3+ goals
18%
Radnicki 1923 1+ goals
74%
Radnicki 1923 2+ goals
39%
Radnicki 1923 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

IMT Novi Beograd (draw refunded)
53%
Radnicki 1923 (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IMT Novi Beograd at home — creates 0.71, concedes 1.86 · 7 matches

Radnicki 1923 away — creates 0.83, concedes 2.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IMT Novi Beograd attack 0.71 + Radnicki 1923 defence 2.17 → ÷2 → 1.44

Radnicki 1923 attack 0.83 + IMT Novi Beograd defence 1.86 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

IMT Novi Beograd scores more
40%
level
25%
Radnicki 1923 scores more
35%

IMT Novi Beograd at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "IMT Novi Beograd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Friendlies Clubs: IMT Novi Beograd 2–1 Radnicki 1923

IMT Novi Beograd beat Radnicki 1923 2-1 in Friendlies Clubs on January 18, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Event Place in Beograd.