IMT Novi Beograd vs FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV — Super Liga 2020
Super Liga · Round 11Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 58+ matches
IMT Novi Beograd42%
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV31%✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
IMT Novi Beograd creates 21% more chances
Season form · 58 home / 112 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Under55
- Over45
Fewer than 3 goals likely
Both teams score
- No50
- Yes50
Close call
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
IMT Novi Beograd ↓
Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
IMT Novi Beograd at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.28 · 58 matches
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.50 · 112 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
IMT Novi Beograd attack 1.21 + FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.35
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV attack 0.96 + IMT Novi Beograd defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.12
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 42%?"
IMT Novi Beograd at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 42% does not mean "IMT Novi Beograd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Player of the match
Match Events
FK Crvena Zvezda
FK Partizan
Cukaricki
Vojvodina
TSC Backa Topola
Radnik Surdulica
Mladost Lucani
Proleter Novi SADFK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
Metalac GM
Napredak
Radnicki NIS
Novi Pazar
FK Vozdovac
RAD
Javor
Indjija
FK Zlatibor
Macva
BackaIf points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Possession
Shots
Pass accuracy
Statistics
IMT Novi Beograd host FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV on Sunday, 5 October 2025 at 15:00. The match is part of the Super Liga 2020/2021 season.
Match Recap: IMT Novi Beograd vs FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV
IMT Novi Beograd beat FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 1-0 in Super Liga on October 5, 2025.
Goals: V. Novicic (90' pen).
FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV controlled possession (52%) and registered 12 shots to 16.