IMT Novi Beograd 1–2 FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV

IMT Novi Beograd

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV

V. Lučić 18'

S. Tomović 90+4', 75'

2/15/2025

Super Liga · Round 23Stadion Lagator

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

IMT Novi Beograd42%

×Draw27%

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IMT Novi BeogradExpected goals in this matchFK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.37

1.13

IMT Novi Beograd

1.37

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV

1.13

IMT Novi Beograd creates 21% more chances

Season form · 58 home / 145 away

1.21

creates per match

0.97

1.28

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

IMT Novi Beograd

1.21

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV

0.97

allows per match

IMT Novi Beograd

1.28

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

IMT Novi Beograd+0.00on par

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IMT Novi Beograd ↓

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

46%54%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

IMT Novi Beograd or draw

69%

IMT Novi Beograd or FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV

73%

Draw or FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV

58%

Winning margin

IMT Novi Beograd wins by 2+

20%

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

IMT Novi Beograd 1+ goals

75%

IMT Novi Beograd 2+ goals

40%

IMT Novi Beograd 3+ goals

16%

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 1+ goals

68%

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 2+ goals

31%

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

IMT Novi Beograd (draw refunded)

58%

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IMT Novi Beograd at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.28 · 58 matches

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.53 · 145 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IMT Novi Beograd attack 1.21 + FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.37

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV attack 0.97 + IMT Novi Beograd defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

IMT Novi Beograd scores more

42%

level

27%

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV scores more

31%

IMT Novi Beograd at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "IMT Novi Beograd will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

70

S. Tomović

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV · M

8.3

Match Events

18'

V. Lučić↳ V. Radočaj

39'

Miloš Mijić

46'

V. Ubiparip← N. Lukić

46'

V. Vitorović← M. Mijailović

59'

K. Osei← N. Robertha

70'

L. Krstović← L. Luković

75'

S. Tomović↳ M. Mijić

76'

U. Bonnet← I. Belfodil

78'

Vladimir Lučić

82'

Luka KrstovićPenalty confirmed

82'

Danijel Kolarić

83'

Nikola Glišić

83'

Kwaku Bonsu Osei Gaucho

84'

Vladimir RadočajMissed penalty

85'

L. Bijelović← N. Kuveljić

88'

F. Malbašić← V. Lučić

89'

Y. Court← N. Krstić

89'

M. Jevtić← S. Popović

90+3'

Vasilije Novićić

90+4'

Stefan Tomović

90+4'

S. Tomović

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IMTFK

Overview

44%Possession56%

24Total Shots9

2Corners5

19Fouls12

Shots

24Total Shots9

5On Target4

12Off Target3

7Blocked2

20Inside Box5

4Outside Box4

Passing

44%Possession56%

359Total Passes477

282Accurate Passes372

79%Pass Accuracy78%

Goalkeeping

2Saves4

Discipline

19Fouls12

3Yellow Cards4

4Offsides6

Super Liga: IMT Novi Beograd 1–2 FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV beat IMT Novi Beograd 2-1 in Super Liga on February 15, 2025.

Goals: V. Lučić (18'), S. Tomović (75', 90+4').

FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV controlled possession (56%) and registered 9 shots to 24.

The match was played at Stadion Lagator in Loznica.

IMT Novi Beograd vs FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV — Super Liga 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Super Liga: IMT Novi Beograd 1–2 FK Spartak Zdrepceva KRV