IMT Novi Beograd 1–1 Cukaricki: Result & Stats

IMT Novi Beograd

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Cukaricki

V. Radočaj 90+3'

M. Docić 10'

11/9/2024

Super Liga · Round 15Stadion Lagator

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 58+ matches

IMT Novi Beograd36%

×Draw27%

Cukaricki37%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IMT Novi BeogradExpected goals in this matchCukaricki

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.28

1.29

IMT Novi Beograd

1.28

Cukaricki

1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 58 home / 144 away

1.21

creates per match

1.29

1.28

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

IMT Novi Beograd

1.21

Cukaricki

1.29

allows per match

IMT Novi Beograd

1.28

Cukaricki

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

IMT Novi Beograd+0.00on par

Cukaricki+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IMT Novi Beograd ↓

Cukaricki →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

47%53%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

IMT Novi Beograd or draw

63%

IMT Novi Beograd or Cukaricki

73%

Draw or Cukaricki

64%

Winning margin

IMT Novi Beograd wins by 2+

16%

Cukaricki wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

IMT Novi Beograd 1+ goals

72%

IMT Novi Beograd 2+ goals

37%

IMT Novi Beograd 3+ goals

14%

Cukaricki 1+ goals

72%

Cukaricki 2+ goals

37%

Cukaricki 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

IMT Novi Beograd (draw refunded)

50%

Cukaricki (draw refunded)

50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IMT Novi Beograd at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.28 · 58 matches

Cukaricki away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.35 · 144 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IMT Novi Beograd attack 1.21 + Cukaricki defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.28

Cukaricki attack 1.29 + IMT Novi Beograd defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

IMT Novi Beograd scores more

36%

level

27%

Cukaricki scores more

37%

Cukaricki at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Cukaricki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

27

V. Radočaj

IMT Novi Beograd · M

8.2

Match Events

10'

M. Docić

53'

Y. Court← N. Krstić

53'

O. Lebi← M. Jović

57'

S. Tedić← L. Tufegdžić

57'

A. Subotić← M. Cvetković

65'

Viktor Rogan

66'

Nikola Glišić

72'

L. Krstović← I. Zulfić

72'

A. Stevanović← L. Luković

73'

Siniša Popović

78'

M. Tzionis← U. Miladinović

78'

H. Diop← M. Cvetković

87'

Antoine Batisse

87'

Bojica Nikčević

87'

Marko Docić

90+1'

Yoann CourtMissed penalty

90+5'

Maxime Do Couto

90+1'

M. Do Couto← V. Lučić

90+1'

N. Milojević← B. Nikčević

90+3'

V. Radočaj

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IMTCukaricki

Overview

48%Possession52%

13Total Shots8

5Corners1

21Fouls17

Shots

13Total Shots8

1On Target2

8Off Target4

4Blocked2

10Inside Box1

3Outside Box7

Passing

48%Possession52%

372Total Passes432

279Accurate Passes321

75%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

1Saves0

Discipline

21Fouls17

4Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards1

3Offsides0