Cukaricki 0–2 IMT Novi Beograd: Result & Stats

Cukaricki

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

IMT Novi Beograd

V. Lučić 76'

I. Belfodil 38'

4/7/2025

Super Liga · Round 30Stadion na Banovom brdu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 55+ matches

Cukaricki53%

×Draw24%

IMT Novi Beograd23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

CukarickiExpected goals in this matchIMT Novi Beograd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.04

Cukaricki

1.69

IMT Novi Beograd

1.04

Cukaricki creates 63% more chances

Season form · 146 home / 55 away

1.77

creates per match

1.20

0.89

allows per match

1.60

creates per match

Cukaricki

1.77

IMT Novi Beograd

1.20

allows per match

Cukaricki

0.89

IMT Novi Beograd

1.60

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Cukaricki+0.00on par

IMT Novi Beograd+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cukaricki ↓

IMT Novi Beograd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

76%24%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Cukaricki or draw

77%

Cukaricki or IMT Novi Beograd

76%

Draw or IMT Novi Beograd

47%

Winning margin

Cukaricki wins by 2+

28%

IMT Novi Beograd wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Cukaricki 1+ goals

82%

Cukaricki 2+ goals

50%

Cukaricki 3+ goals

24%

IMT Novi Beograd 1+ goals

65%

IMT Novi Beograd 2+ goals

28%

IMT Novi Beograd 3+ goals

9%

Draw no bet

Cukaricki (draw refunded)

69%

IMT Novi Beograd (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cukaricki at home — creates 1.77, concedes 0.89 · 146 matches

IMT Novi Beograd away — creates 1.20, concedes 1.60 · 55 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cukaricki attack 1.77 + IMT Novi Beograd defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.69

IMT Novi Beograd attack 1.20 + Cukaricki defence 0.89 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Cukaricki scores more

53%

level

24%

IMT Novi Beograd scores more

23%

Cukaricki at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Cukaricki will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

24

G. Vukliš

IMT Novi Beograd · G

7.9

Match Events

38'

I. Belfodil

44'

Siniša Popović

44'

Nikola Krstić

46'

L. Tufegdžić← N. Milojević

46'

B. Nikčević← S. Srnić

54'

Sambou Sissoko

57'

V. Radočaj← A. Stevanović

63'

M. Cvetković← S. Tedić

63'

A. Bačanin← M. Docić

70'

Y. Court← N. Krstić

70'

U. Bonnet← I. Belfodil

72'

M. Pavkov← S. Sissoko

76'

V. Lučić↳ V. Radočaj

85'

M. Jevtić← L. Luković

85'

L. Krstović← V. Lučić

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

CukarickiIMT

Overview

59%Possession41%

17Total Shots17

6Corners4

14Fouls15

Shots

17Total Shots17

3On Target5

8Off Target5

6Blocked7

15Inside Box12

2Outside Box5

Passing

59%Possession41%

486Total Passes357

398Accurate Passes263

82%Pass Accuracy74%

Goalkeeping

3Saves4

Discipline

14Fouls15

1Yellow Cards2

1Offsides2