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Kariana Erden vs Botev Galabovo — Second League 2018

Kariana Erden
Kariana Erden
FT
3 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Botev Galabovo
Botev Galabovo
12/7/2018Second LeagueSecond League · Round 17Stadion Ogosta (Montana)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Kariana Erden55%
×Draw25%
Botev Galabovo20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kariana Erden
1.58
Botev Galabovo
0.83

Kariana Erden creates 90% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 26 away

creates per match

Kariana Erden
1.61
Botev Galabovo
0.73

allows per match

Kariana Erden
0.94
Botev Galabovo
1.54

finishing

Kariana Erden+0.00on par
Botev Galabovo+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kariana Erden ↓

Botev Galabovo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Kariana Erden or draw
80%
Kariana Erden or Botev Galabovo
75%
Draw or Botev Galabovo
45%

Winning margin

Kariana Erden wins by 2+
29%
Botev Galabovo wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Kariana Erden 1+ goals
79%
Kariana Erden 2+ goals
47%
Kariana Erden 3+ goals
21%
Botev Galabovo 1+ goals
56%
Botev Galabovo 2+ goals
20%
Botev Galabovo 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Kariana Erden (draw refunded)
74%
Botev Galabovo (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kariana Erden at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.94 · 33 matches

Botev Galabovo away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.54 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kariana Erden attack 1.61 + Botev Galabovo defence 1.54 → ÷2 → 1.58

Botev Galabovo attack 0.73 + Kariana Erden defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Kariana Erden scores more
55%
level
25%
Botev Galabovo scores more
20%

Kariana Erden at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Kariana Erden will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kariana Erden vs Botev Galabovo

Kariana Erden beat Botev Galabovo 3-0 in Second League on December 7, 2018.

The match was played at Stadion Ogosta (Montana).