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Botev Galabovo vs Kariana Erden — Second League 2018

Botev Galabovo
Botev Galabovo
CANC
22:00
Kariana Erden
Kariana Erden
5/8/2020Second LeagueSecond League · Round 31Stadion Hristo Botev

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Botev Galabovo45%
×Draw26%
Kariana Erden29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Botev Galabovo
1.46
Kariana Erden
1.12

Botev Galabovo creates 30% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 32 away

creates per match

Botev Galabovo
1.50
Kariana Erden
1.09

allows per match

Botev Galabovo
1.15
Kariana Erden
1.41

finishing

Botev Galabovo+0.00on par
Kariana Erden+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Botev Galabovo ↓

Kariana Erden →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Botev Galabovo or draw
71%
Botev Galabovo or Kariana Erden
74%
Draw or Kariana Erden
55%

Winning margin

Botev Galabovo wins by 2+
22%
Kariana Erden wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Botev Galabovo 1+ goals
77%
Botev Galabovo 2+ goals
43%
Botev Galabovo 3+ goals
18%
Kariana Erden 1+ goals
67%
Kariana Erden 2+ goals
31%
Kariana Erden 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Botev Galabovo (draw refunded)
61%
Kariana Erden (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Botev Galabovo at home — creates 1.50, concedes 1.15 · 26 matches

Kariana Erden away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.41 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Botev Galabovo attack 1.50 + Kariana Erden defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.46

Kariana Erden attack 1.09 + Botev Galabovo defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.12

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Botev Galabovo scores more
45%
level
26%
Kariana Erden scores more
29%

Botev Galabovo at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Botev Galabovo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Botev Galabovo host Kariana Erden

May 8, 2020: Botev Galabovo take on Kariana Erden in Second League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Botev Galabovo host Kariana Erden at Stadion Hristo Botev.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.