Arda Kardzhali 0–1 Tsarsko Selo: Result & Stats

Arda Kardzhali

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Tsarsko Selo

G. Minchev 77'

10/28/2018

Second League · Round 12Arena Arda (Kardzhali)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Arda Kardzhali43%

×Draw26%

Tsarsko Selo30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Arda KardzhaliExpected goals in this matchTsarsko Selo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.42

1.14

Arda Kardzhali

1.42

Tsarsko Selo

1.14

Arda Kardzhali creates 25% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 17 away

1.67

creates per match

1.94

0.33

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Arda Kardzhali

1.67

Tsarsko Selo

1.94

allows per match

Arda Kardzhali

0.33

Tsarsko Selo

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Arda Kardzhali+0.00on par

Tsarsko Selo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arda Kardzhali ↓

Tsarsko Selo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Arda Kardzhali or draw

70%

Arda Kardzhali or Tsarsko Selo

74%

Draw or Tsarsko Selo

57%

Winning margin

Arda Kardzhali wins by 2+

21%

Tsarsko Selo wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Arda Kardzhali 1+ goals

76%

Arda Kardzhali 2+ goals

41%

Arda Kardzhali 3+ goals

17%

Tsarsko Selo 1+ goals

68%

Tsarsko Selo 2+ goals

32%

Tsarsko Selo 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Arda Kardzhali (draw refunded)

59%

Tsarsko Selo (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

39%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arda Kardzhali at home — creates 1.67, concedes 0.33 · 15 matches

Tsarsko Selo away — creates 1.94, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arda Kardzhali attack 1.67 + Tsarsko Selo defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.42

Tsarsko Selo attack 1.94 + Arda Kardzhali defence 0.33 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Arda Kardzhali scores more

43%

level

26%

Tsarsko Selo scores more

30%

Arda Kardzhali at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Arda Kardzhali will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

39'

I. Markov← K. Vasilev

46'

K. Iliev← D. Zakonov

51'

E. Manev← V. Minev

63'

G. Andonov← D. Makriev

75'

V. Marchev← M. Plahov

77'

G. Minchev

81'

V. Semerdzhiev← B. Katsarov

Arda

Tsarsko

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: S. Stoev

46'▲K. Iliev←▼D. Zakonov

63'▲G. Andonov←▼D. Makriev

75'▲V. Marchev←▼M. Plahov

Arda Kardzhali substitutes

IlievAndonovMarchevOsmanLucasSandevGanev

Manager: N. Spasov

39'▲I. Markov←▼K. Vasilev

51'▲E. Manev←▼V. Minev

81'▲V. Semerdzhiev←▼B. Katsarov

Tsarsko Selo substitutes

MarkovManevSemerdzhievDimitrovKatsarevDyulgerovKaloyanov