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Imisli FK vs Difai Ağsu — Birinci Dasta 2019

Imisli FK
Imisli FK
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Difai Ağsu
Difai Ağsu
2/14/2024Birinci DastaBirinci Dasta · Round 14Heydər Əliyev adına şəhər stadionu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 40+ matches

Imisli FK50%
×Draw25%
Difai Ağsu26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Imisli FK
1.64
Difai Ağsu
1.11

Imisli FK creates 48% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 40 away

creates per match

Imisli FK
1.29
Difai Ağsu
1.15

allows per match

Imisli FK
1.07
Difai Ağsu
1.98

finishing

Imisli FK+0.00on par
Difai Ağsu+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Imisli FK ↓

Difai Ağsu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
30%70%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Imisli FK or draw
74%
Imisli FK or Difai Ağsu
75%
Draw or Difai Ağsu
50%

Winning margin

Imisli FK wins by 2+
26%
Difai Ağsu wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Imisli FK 1+ goals
81%
Imisli FK 2+ goals
49%
Imisli FK 3+ goals
23%
Difai Ağsu 1+ goals
67%
Difai Ağsu 2+ goals
30%
Difai Ağsu 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Imisli FK (draw refunded)
66%
Difai Ağsu (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Imisli FK at home — creates 1.29, concedes 1.07 · 41 matches

Difai Ağsu away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.98 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Imisli FK attack 1.29 + Difai Ağsu defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 1.64

Difai Ağsu attack 1.15 + Imisli FK defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Imisli FK scores more
50%
level
25%
Difai Ağsu scores more
26%

Imisli FK at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Imisli FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Imisli FK vs Difai Ağsu

Imisli FK beat Difai Ağsu 1-0 in Birinci Dasta on February 14, 2024.

The match was played at Heydər Əliyev adına şəhər stadionu in İmişli.