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Difai Ağsu vs Imisli FK — Birinci Dasta 2019

Difai Ağsu
Difai Ağsu
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 0
Imisli FK
Imisli FK
4/18/2024Birinci DastaBirinci Dasta · Round 22Şamaxı şəhər stadionu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 41+ matches

Difai Ağsu35%
×Draw25%
Imisli FK40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Difai Ağsu
1.42
Imisli FK
1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 41 home / 42 away

creates per match

Difai Ağsu
1.24
Imisli FK
1.19

allows per match

Difai Ağsu
1.85
Imisli FK
1.60

finishing

Difai Ağsu+0.00on par
Imisli FK+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Difai Ağsu ↓

Imisli FK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Difai Ağsu or draw
60%
Difai Ağsu or Imisli FK
75%
Draw or Imisli FK
65%

Winning margin

Difai Ağsu wins by 2+
16%
Imisli FK wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Difai Ağsu 1+ goals
76%
Difai Ağsu 2+ goals
41%
Difai Ağsu 3+ goals
17%
Imisli FK 1+ goals
78%
Imisli FK 2+ goals
45%
Imisli FK 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Difai Ağsu (draw refunded)
47%
Imisli FK (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Difai Ağsu at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.85 · 41 matches

Imisli FK away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.60 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Difai Ağsu attack 1.24 + Imisli FK defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.42

Imisli FK attack 1.19 + Difai Ağsu defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Difai Ağsu scores more
35%
level
25%
Imisli FK scores more
40%

Imisli FK at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Imisli FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Birinci Dasta: Difai Ağsu 2–2 Imisli FK

Difai Ağsu and Imisli FK drew 2-2 in Birinci Dasta on April 18, 2024.

The match was played at Şamaxı şəhər stadionu in Shamakhi.