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Imereti vs Guria — Erovnuli Liga 2 2019

Imereti
Imereti
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Guria
Guria
9/13/2012Erovnuli Liga 2Erovnuli Liga 2 · Group A - 4Tsentraluri Stadioni

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Imereti29%
×Draw26%
Guria45%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Imereti
1.13
Guria
1.48

Guria creates 31% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 19 away

creates per match

Imereti
0.67
Guria
0.95

allows per match

Imereti
2.00
Guria
1.58

finishing

Imereti+0.00on par
Guria+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Imereti ↓

Guria →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Imereti or draw
55%
Imereti or Guria
74%
Draw or Guria
71%

Winning margin

Imereti wins by 2+
11%
Guria wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Imereti 1+ goals
68%
Imereti 2+ goals
31%
Imereti 3+ goals
11%
Guria 1+ goals
77%
Guria 2+ goals
43%
Guria 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Imereti (draw refunded)
39%
Guria (draw refunded)
61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Imereti at home — creates 0.67, concedes 2.00 · 6 matches

Guria away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.58 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Imereti attack 0.67 + Guria defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.13

Guria attack 0.95 + Imereti defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Imereti scores more
29%
level
26%
Guria scores more
45%

Guria at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Guria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Erovnuli Liga 2: Imereti 0–2 Guria

Guria beat Imereti 2-0 in Erovnuli Liga 2 on September 13, 2012.

The match was played at Tsentraluri Stadioni in Khoni.