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Guria vs Imereti — Erovnuli Liga 2 2019

Guria
Guria
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Imereti
Imereti
11/24/2012Erovnuli Liga 2Erovnuli Liga 2 · Group A - 15Stadioni Evgrapi Shevardnadze Satadarigo moedani

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Guria72%
×Draw16%
Imereti12%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guria
2.61
Imereti
0.96

Guria creates 172% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 4 away

creates per match

Guria
1.47
Imereti
0.50

allows per match

Guria
1.42
Imereti
3.75

finishing

Guria+0.00on par
Imereti+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guria ↓

Imereti →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–17%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–15%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Guria or draw
88%
Guria or Imereti
84%
Draw or Imereti
28%

Winning margin

Guria wins by 2+
51%
Imereti wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Guria 1+ goals
93%
Guria 2+ goals
73%
Guria 3+ goals
47%
Imereti 1+ goals
62%
Imereti 2+ goals
25%
Imereti 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Guria (draw refunded)
86%
Imereti (draw refunded)
14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guria at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.42 · 19 matches

Imereti away — creates 0.50, concedes 3.75 · 4 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guria attack 1.47 + Imereti defence 3.75 → ÷2 → 2.61

Imereti attack 0.50 + Guria defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Guria scores more
72%
level
16%
Imereti scores more
12%

Guria at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Guria will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Guria vs Imereti

Guria beat Imereti 3-0 in Erovnuli Liga 2 on November 24, 2012.

The match was played at Stadioni Evgrapi Shevardnadze Satadarigo moedani in Lanchkhuti.