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Imeľ vs TEMPO Partizánske — 3. liga - West 2020

Imeľ
Imeľ
FT
2 – 3
TEMPO Partizánske
TEMPO Partizánske
5/22/20223. liga - West3. liga - West · West - 28Futbalový štadión TJ Imeľ

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Imeľ56%
×Draw22%
TEMPO Partizánske22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Imeľ
1.95
TEMPO Partizánske
1.15

Imeľ creates 70% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 17 away

creates per match

Imeľ
1.25
TEMPO Partizánske
1.00

allows per match

Imeľ
1.29
TEMPO Partizánske
2.65

finishing

Imeľ+0.00on par
TEMPO Partizánske+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Imeľ ↓

TEMPO Partizánske →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Imeľ or draw
78%
Imeľ or TEMPO Partizánske
78%
Draw or TEMPO Partizánske
44%

Winning margin

Imeľ wins by 2+
33%
TEMPO Partizánske wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Imeľ 1+ goals
86%
Imeľ 2+ goals
58%
Imeľ 3+ goals
31%
TEMPO Partizánske 1+ goals
68%
TEMPO Partizánske 2+ goals
32%
TEMPO Partizánske 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Imeľ (draw refunded)
72%
TEMPO Partizánske (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Imeľ at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.29 · 24 matches

TEMPO Partizánske away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.65 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Imeľ attack 1.25 + TEMPO Partizánske defence 2.65 → ÷2 → 1.95

TEMPO Partizánske attack 1.00 + Imeľ defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Imeľ scores more
56%
level
22%
TEMPO Partizánske scores more
22%

Imeľ at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Imeľ will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

3. liga - West: Imeľ 2–3 TEMPO Partizánske

TEMPO Partizánske beat Imeľ 3-2 in 3. liga - West on May 22, 2022.

The match was played at Futbalový štadión TJ Imeľ in Imeľ.