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Imbabura vs Macara — Liga Pro 2026

Imbabura
Imbabura
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Macara
Macara
4/9/2024Liga ProLiga Pro · 1st Round - 7Estadio Olímpico de Ibarra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Imbabura35%
×Draw26%
Macara39%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Imbabura
1.30
Macara
1.39

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 117 away

creates per match

Imbabura
1.27
Macara
1.11

allows per match

Imbabura
1.67
Macara
1.33

finishing

Imbabura+0.00on par
Macara+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Imbabura ↓

Macara →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Imbabura or draw
61%
Imbabura or Macara
74%
Draw or Macara
65%

Winning margin

Imbabura wins by 2+
15%
Macara wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Imbabura 1+ goals
73%
Imbabura 2+ goals
37%
Imbabura 3+ goals
14%
Macara 1+ goals
75%
Macara 2+ goals
40%
Macara 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Imbabura (draw refunded)
47%
Macara (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Imbabura at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

Macara away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.33 · 117 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Imbabura attack 1.27 + Macara defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.30

Macara attack 1.11 + Imbabura defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Imbabura scores more
35%
level
26%
Macara scores more
39%

Macara at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Macara will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Pro: Imbabura 0–1 Macara

Macara beat Imbabura 1-0 in Liga Pro on April 9, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico de Ibarra in Ibarra.