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Imbabura vs Macara — Liga Pro Serie B 2026

Imbabura
Imbabura
FT
4 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Macara
Macara
Unknown 83', 68'
E. Mendoza 50'
L. Pantoja 22'
10/27/2023Liga Pro Serie BLiga Pro Serie B · Round 36Estadio Olímpico de Ibarra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Imbabura44%
×Draw28%
Macara28%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 577,134 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.8% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Imbabura
1.34
Macara
1.00

Imbabura creates 34% more chances

Season form · 55 home / 22 away

creates per match

Imbabura
1.36
Macara
1.00

allows per match

Imbabura
1.00
Macara
1.32

finishing

Imbabura+0.00on par
Macara+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Imbabura ↓

Macara →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Imbabura or draw
72%
Imbabura or Macara
72%
Draw or Macara
56%

Winning margin

Imbabura wins by 2+
21%
Macara wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Imbabura 1+ goals
74%
Imbabura 2+ goals
39%
Imbabura 3+ goals
15%
Macara 1+ goals
63%
Macara 2+ goals
26%
Macara 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Imbabura (draw refunded)
61%
Macara (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Imbabura at home — creates 1.36, concedes 1.00 · 55 matches

Macara away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.32 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Imbabura attack 1.36 + Macara defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.34

Macara attack 1.00 + Imbabura defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Imbabura scores more
44%
level
28%
Macara scores more
28%

Imbabura at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Imbabura will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

22'
L. Pantoja
50'
E. Mendoza
68'
83'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Pro Serie B: Imbabura 4–0 Macara

Imbabura beat Macara 4-0 in Liga Pro Serie B on October 27, 2023.

Goals: L. Pantoja (22'), E. Mendoza (50'), ? (68', 83').

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico de Ibarra in Ibarra.