Imbabura 1–1 Gualaceo SC: Result & Stats

Imbabura

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Gualaceo SC

D. Burbano 20'

T. Donsanti 29'

4/9/2025

Liga Pro Serie B · Round 4Estadio Olimpico de Ibarra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Imbabura45%

×Draw30%

Gualaceo SC26%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ImbaburaExpected goals in this matchGualaceo SC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

0.84

Imbabura

1.21

Gualaceo SC

0.84

Imbabura creates 44% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 29 away

1.10

creates per match

0.79

0.90

allows per match

1.31

creates per match

Imbabura

1.10

Gualaceo SC

0.79

allows per match

Imbabura

0.90

Gualaceo SC

1.31

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Imbabura+0.00on par

Gualaceo SC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under66
Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Imbabura ↓

Gualaceo SC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–111%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–09%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

61%39%2.5

34%66%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Imbabura or draw

74%

Imbabura or Gualaceo SC

70%

Draw or Gualaceo SC

55%

Winning margin

Imbabura wins by 2+

20%

Gualaceo SC wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Imbabura 1+ goals

70%

Imbabura 2+ goals

34%

Imbabura 3+ goals

12%

Gualaceo SC 1+ goals

57%

Gualaceo SC 2+ goals

21%

Gualaceo SC 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Imbabura (draw refunded)

64%

Gualaceo SC (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Imbabura at home — creates 1.10, concedes 0.90 · 20 matches

Gualaceo SC away — creates 0.79, concedes 1.31 · 29 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Imbabura attack 1.10 + Gualaceo SC defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.21

Gualaceo SC attack 0.79 + Imbabura defence 0.90 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Imbabura scores more

45%

level

30%

Gualaceo SC scores more

26%

Imbabura at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Imbabura will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'

D. Burbano

29'

T. Donsanti

45+1'

M. Tello

Imbabura

Gualaceo

12

3

23

15

4

5

80

10

70

11

32

⚽

90

2

27

7

33

8

34

20

51

10

77

Manager: L. Espinel

Imbabura substitutes

5Cevallos76Corozo11Sánchez15Chávez25Yar26Gómez52Espinoza54Viveros60Maldonado79Guisamano88Castillo

Manager: Cipriano

Gualaceo SC substitutes

9Cordara99Pita6Obando1Lemos7Caicedo14Alvarado17Zumba24Delgado88Wila55Bravo

Match Recap: Imbabura vs Gualaceo SC

Imbabura and Gualaceo SC drew 1-1 in Liga Pro Serie B on April 9, 2025.

Goals: D. Burbano (20'), T. Donsanti (29').

The match was played at Estadio Olimpico de Ibarra in Ibarra.

Imbabura vs Gualaceo SC — Liga Pro Serie B 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Imbabura vs Gualaceo SC