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Imbabura vs Gualaceo SC — Liga Pro Serie B 2024

Imbabura
Imbabura
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Gualaceo SC
Gualaceo SC
S. Giménez 20'
7/29/2017Liga Pro Serie BLiga Pro Serie B · Round 24Estadio Olímpico de Ibarra (Ibarra)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Imbabura46%
×Draw30%
Gualaceo SC25%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Imbabura
1.22
Gualaceo SC
0.81

Imbabura creates 51% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 44 away

creates per match

Imbabura
1.09
Gualaceo SC
0.77

allows per match

Imbabura
0.86
Gualaceo SC
1.34

finishing

Imbabura+0.00on par
Gualaceo SC+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Imbabura ↓

Gualaceo SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Imbabura or draw
75%
Imbabura or Gualaceo SC
70%
Draw or Gualaceo SC
54%

Winning margin

Imbabura wins by 2+
20%
Gualaceo SC wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Imbabura 1+ goals
70%
Imbabura 2+ goals
34%
Imbabura 3+ goals
12%
Gualaceo SC 1+ goals
56%
Gualaceo SC 2+ goals
19%
Gualaceo SC 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Imbabura (draw refunded)
65%
Gualaceo SC (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Imbabura at home — creates 1.09, concedes 0.86 · 22 matches

Gualaceo SC away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.34 · 44 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Imbabura attack 1.09 + Gualaceo SC defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.22

Gualaceo SC attack 0.77 + Imbabura defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Imbabura scores more
46%
level
30%
Gualaceo SC scores more
25%

Imbabura at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Imbabura will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

20'
S. Giménez

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Pro Serie B: Imbabura 1–0 Gualaceo SC

Imbabura beat Gualaceo SC 1-0 in Liga Pro Serie B on July 29, 2017.

Goals: S. Giménez (20').

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico de Ibarra (Ibarra).