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Imbabura vs Delfin SC — Liga Pro 2026

Imbabura
Imbabura
FT
3 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Delfin SC
Delfin SC
3/9/2024Liga ProLiga Pro · 1st Round - 2Estadio Olímpico de Ibarra

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Imbabura41%
×Draw25%
Delfin SC34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Imbabura
1.47
Delfin SC
1.31

Imbabura creates 12% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 133 away

creates per match

Imbabura
1.27
Delfin SC
0.95

allows per match

Imbabura
1.67
Delfin SC
1.67

finishing

Imbabura+0.00on par
Delfin SC+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Imbabura ↓

Delfin SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Imbabura or draw
66%
Imbabura or Delfin SC
75%
Draw or Delfin SC
59%

Winning margin

Imbabura wins by 2+
20%
Delfin SC wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Imbabura 1+ goals
77%
Imbabura 2+ goals
43%
Imbabura 3+ goals
18%
Delfin SC 1+ goals
73%
Delfin SC 2+ goals
38%
Delfin SC 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Imbabura (draw refunded)
55%
Delfin SC (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Imbabura at home — creates 1.27, concedes 1.67 · 15 matches

Delfin SC away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.67 · 133 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Imbabura attack 1.27 + Delfin SC defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.47

Delfin SC attack 0.95 + Imbabura defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Imbabura scores more
41%
level
25%
Delfin SC scores more
34%

Imbabura at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Imbabura will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Imbabura vs Delfin SC

Imbabura beat Delfin SC 3-0 in Liga Pro on March 9, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Olímpico de Ibarra in Ibarra.