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Delfin SC vs Imbabura — Liga Pro 2026

Delfin SC
Delfin SC
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Imbabura
Imbabura
8/11/2024Liga ProLiga Pro · 2nd Round - 2Estadio Jocay

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Delfin SC57%
×Draw23%
Imbabura20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Delfin SC
1.85
Imbabura
1.00

Delfin SC creates 85% more chances

Season form · 133 home / 15 away

creates per match

Delfin SC
1.38
Imbabura
1.00

allows per match

Delfin SC
1.00
Imbabura
2.33

finishing

Delfin SC+0.00on par
Imbabura+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%Yes
  • Yes53
  • No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Delfin SC ↓

Imbabura →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Delfin SC or draw
80%
Delfin SC or Imbabura
77%
Draw or Imbabura
43%

Winning margin

Delfin SC wins by 2+
33%
Imbabura wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Delfin SC 1+ goals
84%
Delfin SC 2+ goals
55%
Delfin SC 3+ goals
28%
Imbabura 1+ goals
63%
Imbabura 2+ goals
26%
Imbabura 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Delfin SC (draw refunded)
74%
Imbabura (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Delfin SC at home — creates 1.38, concedes 1.00 · 133 matches

Imbabura away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.33 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Delfin SC attack 1.38 + Imbabura defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.85

Imbabura attack 1.00 + Delfin SC defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Delfin SC scores more
57%
level
23%
Imbabura scores more
20%

Delfin SC at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Delfin SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Delfin SC vs Imbabura

Delfin SC and Imbabura drew 1-1 in Liga Pro on August 11, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Jocay in Manta.