Ilves 1–1 Djurgardens IF: Result & Stats

Ilves

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Djurgardens IF

8/8/2024

UEFA Europa Conference League · 3rd Qualifying RoundTammelan Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Ilves48%

×Draw23%

Djurgardens IF29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IlvesExpected goals in this matchDjurgardens IF

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.78

1.34

Ilves

1.78

Djurgardens IF

1.34

Ilves creates 33% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 16 away

2.50

creates per match

1.19

1.50

allows per match

1.06

creates per match

Ilves

2.50

Djurgardens IF

1.19

allows per match

Ilves

1.50

Djurgardens IF

1.06

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ilves+0.00on par

Djurgardens IF+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes61
No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ilves ↓

Djurgardens IF →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

60%40%3.5

38%62%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Ilves or draw

71%

Ilves or Djurgardens IF

77%

Draw or Djurgardens IF

52%

Winning margin

Ilves wins by 2+

26%

Djurgardens IF wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Ilves 1+ goals

83%

Ilves 2+ goals

53%

Ilves 3+ goals

26%

Djurgardens IF 1+ goals

74%

Djurgardens IF 2+ goals

39%

Djurgardens IF 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Ilves (draw refunded)

62%

Djurgardens IF (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

51%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ilves at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Djurgardens IF away — creates 1.19, concedes 1.06 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ilves attack 2.50 + Djurgardens IF defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 1.78

Djurgardens IF attack 1.19 + Ilves defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Ilves scores more

48%

level

23%

Djurgardens IF scores more

29%

Ilves at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Ilves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff