Djurgardens IF 3–1 Ilves: Result & Stats

Djurgardens IF

FT

3 – 1

HT: 2 – 1

Ilves

A. Ståhl 51'

D. Hümmet 43'

B. Šabović 14'

R. Riski 30'

8/15/2024

UEFA Europa Conference League · 3rd Qualifying RoundTele2 Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Djurgardens IF72%

×Draw17%

Ilves11%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Djurgardens IFExpected goals in this matchIlves

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.33

0.76

Djurgardens IF

2.33

Ilves

0.76

Djurgardens IF creates 207% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 3 away

2.00

creates per match

0.33

1.18

allows per match

2.67

creates per match

Djurgardens IF

2.00

Ilves

0.33

allows per match

Djurgardens IF

1.18

Ilves

2.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Djurgardens IF+0.00on par

Ilves+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Djurgardens IF ↓

Ilves →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–14%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Djurgardens IF or draw

89%

Djurgardens IF or Ilves

83%

Draw or Ilves

28%

Winning margin

Djurgardens IF wins by 2+

49%

Ilves wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Djurgardens IF 1+ goals

90%

Djurgardens IF 2+ goals

67%

Djurgardens IF 3+ goals

41%

Ilves 1+ goals

53%

Ilves 2+ goals

18%

Ilves 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Djurgardens IF (draw refunded)

87%

Ilves (draw refunded)

13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Djurgardens IF at home — creates 2.00, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

Ilves away — creates 0.33, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Djurgardens IF attack 2.00 + Ilves defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 2.33

Ilves attack 0.33 + Djurgardens IF defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 72%?"

Djurgardens IF scores more

72%

level

17%

Ilves scores more

11%

Djurgardens IF at 72% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 72% does not mean "Djurgardens IF will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

14'

30'

43'

51'

56'

Tobias Fjeld Gulliksen

65'

A. Priske← G. Wikheim

68'

L. Ala-Myllymäki← A. Popovitch

68'

A. Kanté← M. Söderbäck

74'

V. Bergh← K. Kosugi

74'

T. Nguen← D. Hümmet

80'

Adam Stahl

82'

M. Eriksson← R. Schüller

83'

H. Radetinac← T. Gulliksen

85'

85'

85'

89'

90+2'

Djurgardens4-2-3-1

Ilves4-3-3

29

Haarala

10

⚽

▼

Riski

17

▼

Söderbäck

7

Veteli

6

Arifi

14

▼

Popovitch

3

▼

5

16

22

1

35

27

▼

Kosugi

3

Danielson

5

Tenho

18

⚽

Ståhl

6

▼

Schüller

14

⚽

Šabović

23

▼

Wikheim

16

▼

Gulliksen

15

Fallenius

11

⚽

▼

Hümmet

Manager: K. Bergstrand

65'▲A. Priske←▼G. Wikheim

74'▲V. Bergh←▼K. Kosugi

74'▲T. Nguen←▼D. Hümmet

82'▲M. Eriksson←▼R. Schüller

83'▲H. Radetinac←▼T. Gulliksen

Djurgardens IF substitutes

26Priske19Bergh20Nguen7Eriksson9Radetinac4Larsson17Therkildsen12Bergvall40Croon30Säfqvist22Åslund

Manager: J. Rantanen

68'▲L. Ala-Myllymäki←▼A. Popovitch

68'▲A. Kanté←▼M. Söderbäck

85'▲M. Kivikko←▼Jorginho

89'▲J. Akpudje←▼R. Riski

Ilves substitutes

15Ala-Myllymäki24Kanté2Kivikko44Akpudje32Väyrynen31Bulgakov27Riissanen12Seppä

Match Recap: Djurgardens IF vs Ilves

Djurgardens IF beat Ilves 3-1 in UEFA Europa Conference League on August 15, 2024.

Goals: B. Šabović (14'), R. Riski (30'), D. Hümmet (43'), A. Ståhl (51').

The match was played at Tele2 Arena in Stockholm.

Djurgardens IF vs Ilves — UEFA Europa Conference League 2021

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Djurgardens IF vs Ilves