Ilves 2–1 Austria Vienna: Result & Stats

Ilves

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Austria Vienna

7/25/2024

UEFA Europa Conference League · 2nd Qualifying RoundTammelan Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Ilves58%

×Draw19%

Austria Vienna23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IlvesExpected goals in this matchAustria Vienna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.53

1.58

Ilves

2.53

Austria Vienna

1.58

Ilves creates 60% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 9 away

2.50

creates per match

1.67

1.50

allows per match

2.56

creates per match

Ilves

2.50

Austria Vienna

1.67

allows per match

Ilves

1.50

Austria Vienna

2.56

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ilves+0.00on par

Austria Vienna+0.00on par

Total goals

Over77
Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes73
No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ilves ↓

Austria Vienna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–25%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–26%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–24%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

77%23%3.5

58%42%4.5

38%62%

Double chance

Ilves or draw

77%

Ilves or Austria Vienna

81%

Draw or Austria Vienna

42%

Winning margin

Ilves wins by 2+

37%

Austria Vienna wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Ilves 1+ goals

92%

Ilves 2+ goals

71%

Ilves 3+ goals

46%

Austria Vienna 1+ goals

79%

Austria Vienna 2+ goals

47%

Austria Vienna 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Ilves (draw refunded)

71%

Austria Vienna (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ilves at home — creates 2.50, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Austria Vienna away — creates 1.67, concedes 2.56 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ilves attack 2.50 + Austria Vienna defence 2.56 → ÷2 → 2.53

Austria Vienna attack 1.67 + Ilves defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Ilves scores more

58%

level

19%

Austria Vienna scores more

23%

Ilves at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Ilves will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff