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Austria Vienna vs Ilves — UEFA Europa Conference League 2021

Austria Vienna
Austria Vienna
Pens
3 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Ilves
Ilves
7/31/2024UEFA Europa Conference LeagueUEFA Europa Conference League · 2nd Qualifying RoundGenerali Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Austria Vienna65%
×Draw21%
Ilves14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Austria Vienna
1.90
Ilves
0.73

Austria Vienna creates 160% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 3 away

creates per match

Austria Vienna
1.13
Ilves
0.33

allows per match

Austria Vienna
1.13
Ilves
2.67

finishing

Austria Vienna+0.00on par
Ilves+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Austria Vienna ↓

Ilves →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–15%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–110%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Austria Vienna or draw
86%
Austria Vienna or Ilves
79%
Draw or Ilves
35%

Winning margin

Austria Vienna wins by 2+
39%
Ilves wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Austria Vienna 1+ goals
85%
Austria Vienna 2+ goals
56%
Austria Vienna 3+ goals
29%
Ilves 1+ goals
52%
Ilves 2+ goals
17%
Ilves 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Austria Vienna (draw refunded)
83%
Ilves (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Austria Vienna at home — creates 1.13, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

Ilves away — creates 0.33, concedes 2.67 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Austria Vienna attack 1.13 + Ilves defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 1.90

Ilves attack 0.33 + Austria Vienna defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Austria Vienna scores more
65%
level
21%
Ilves scores more
14%

Austria Vienna at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Austria Vienna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Austria Vienna vs Ilves

Austria Vienna beat Ilves 3-2 in UEFA Europa Conference League on July 31, 2024.

The match was played at Generali Arena in Wien.