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Ilshofen vs Freiburger FC — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

Ilshofen
Ilshofen
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Freiburger FC
Freiburger FC
3/5/2022Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 23Kunstrasenplatz TSV Ilshofen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Ilshofen44%
×Draw22%
Freiburger FC34%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ilshofen
1.88
Freiburger FC
1.62

Ilshofen creates 16% more chances

Season form · 25 home / 42 away

creates per match

Ilshofen
1.68
Freiburger FC
1.12

allows per match

Ilshofen
2.12
Freiburger FC
2.07

finishing

Ilshofen+0.00on par
Freiburger FC+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Over
  • Over68
  • Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ilshofen ↓

Freiburger FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
68%32%3.5
46%54%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

Ilshofen or draw
66%
Ilshofen or Freiburger FC
78%
Draw or Freiburger FC
56%

Winning margin

Ilshofen wins by 2+
24%
Freiburger FC wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Ilshofen 1+ goals
85%
Ilshofen 2+ goals
56%
Ilshofen 3+ goals
29%
Freiburger FC 1+ goals
80%
Freiburger FC 2+ goals
48%
Freiburger FC 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Ilshofen (draw refunded)
57%
Freiburger FC (draw refunded)
43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ilshofen at home — creates 1.68, concedes 2.12 · 25 matches

Freiburger FC away — creates 1.12, concedes 2.07 · 42 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ilshofen attack 1.68 + Freiburger FC defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.88

Freiburger FC attack 1.12 + Ilshofen defence 2.12 → ÷2 → 1.62

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Ilshofen scores more
44%
level
22%
Freiburger FC scores more
34%

Ilshofen at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Ilshofen will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg: Ilshofen 1–1 Freiburger FC

Ilshofen and Freiburger FC drew 1-1 in Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg on March 5, 2022.

The match was played at Kunstrasenplatz TSV Ilshofen in Ilshofen.