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Freiburger FC vs Ilshofen — Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg 2020

Freiburger FC
Freiburger FC
CANC
13:30
Ilshofen
Ilshofen
11/14/2020Oberliga - Baden-WürttembergOberliga - Baden-Württemberg · Baden-Württemberg - 16Dietenbach-Sportpark

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 25+ matches

Freiburger FC49%
×Draw21%
Ilshofen31%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.6%
Always home
44.7%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.6% correct across 576,853 matches, vs 44.7% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.9% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Freiburger FC
2.18
Ilshofen
1.71

Freiburger FC creates 27% more chances

Season form · 42 home / 25 away

creates per match

Freiburger FC
1.52
Ilshofen
1.20

allows per match

Freiburger FC
2.21
Ilshofen
2.84

finishing

Freiburger FC+0.00on par
Ilshofen+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Freiburger FC ↓

Ilshofen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–27%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
54%46%4.5
34%66%

Double chance

Freiburger FC or draw
69%
Freiburger FC or Ilshofen
79%
Draw or Ilshofen
51%

Winning margin

Freiburger FC wins by 2+
29%
Ilshofen wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Freiburger FC 1+ goals
89%
Freiburger FC 2+ goals
64%
Freiburger FC 3+ goals
37%
Ilshofen 1+ goals
82%
Ilshofen 2+ goals
51%
Ilshofen 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Freiburger FC (draw refunded)
61%
Ilshofen (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
65%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Freiburger FC at home — creates 1.52, concedes 2.21 · 42 matches

Ilshofen away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.84 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Freiburger FC attack 1.52 + Ilshofen defence 2.84 → ÷2 → 2.18

Ilshofen attack 1.20 + Freiburger FC defence 2.21 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Freiburger FC scores more
49%
level
21%
Ilshofen scores more
31%

Freiburger FC at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Freiburger FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Freiburger FC face Ilshofen (Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg)

Oberliga - Baden-Württemberg returns with Freiburger FC hosting Ilshofen. Match starts November 14, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Freiburger FC host Ilshofen at Dietenbach-Sportpark.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.