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Illueca vs Ebro — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Illueca
Illueca
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Ebro
Ebro
3/10/2024Tercera División RFEF - Group 17Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 24Estadio Papa Luna

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Illueca29%
×Draw29%
Ebro42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Illueca
0.95
Ebro
1.22

Ebro creates 28% more chances

Season form · 93 home / 34 away

creates per match

Illueca
1.25
Ebro
1.29

allows per match

Illueca
1.15
Ebro
0.65

finishing

Illueca+0.00on par
Ebro+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

57%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Illueca ↓

Ebro →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Illueca or draw
58%
Illueca or Ebro
71%
Draw or Ebro
71%

Winning margin

Illueca wins by 2+
10%
Ebro wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Illueca 1+ goals
61%
Illueca 2+ goals
25%
Illueca 3+ goals
7%
Ebro 1+ goals
70%
Ebro 2+ goals
34%
Ebro 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Illueca (draw refunded)
40%
Ebro (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Illueca at home — creates 1.25, concedes 1.15 · 93 matches

Ebro away — creates 1.29, concedes 0.65 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Illueca attack 1.25 + Ebro defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.95

Ebro attack 1.29 + Illueca defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Illueca scores more
29%
level
29%
Ebro scores more
42%

Ebro at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Ebro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Illueca vs Ebro

Ebro beat Illueca 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 on March 10, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Papa Luna in Illueca.