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Ebro vs Illueca — Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 2019

Ebro
Ebro
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Illueca
Illueca
10/21/2023Tercera División RFEF - Group 17Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 · Group 17 - 7Estadio Almozara

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Ebro51%
×Draw26%
Illueca22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ebro
1.49
Illueca
0.88

Ebro creates 69% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 93 away

creates per match

Ebro
1.56
Illueca
1.10

allows per match

Ebro
0.65
Illueca
1.42

finishing

Ebro+0.00on par
Illueca+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ebro ↓

Illueca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–18%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Ebro or draw
78%
Ebro or Illueca
74%
Draw or Illueca
49%

Winning margin

Ebro wins by 2+
26%
Illueca wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Ebro 1+ goals
77%
Ebro 2+ goals
44%
Ebro 3+ goals
19%
Illueca 1+ goals
59%
Illueca 2+ goals
22%
Illueca 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Ebro (draw refunded)
70%
Illueca (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ebro at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.65 · 34 matches

Illueca away — creates 1.10, concedes 1.42 · 93 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ebro attack 1.56 + Illueca defence 1.42 → ÷2 → 1.49

Illueca attack 1.10 + Ebro defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Ebro scores more
51%
level
26%
Illueca scores more
22%

Ebro at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Ebro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ebro vs Illueca

Ebro beat Illueca 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 17 on October 21, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Almozara in Zaragoza.