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UNIRB vs Atlanta — Baiano - 2 2019

UNIRB
UNIRB
FT
2 – 1
Atlanta
Atlanta
3/24/2019Baiano - 2Baiano - 2 · Round 3Estádio Antônio de Figueiredo Carneiro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

UNIRB49%
×Draw23%
Atlanta28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

UNIRB
1.81
Atlanta
1.30

UNIRB creates 39% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 6 away

creates per match

UNIRB
2.46
Atlanta
1.83

allows per match

UNIRB
0.77
Atlanta
1.17

finishing

UNIRB+0.00on par
Atlanta+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

61%Yes
  • Yes61
  • No39

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

UNIRB ↓

Atlanta →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

UNIRB or draw
72%
UNIRB or Atlanta
77%
Draw or Atlanta
51%

Winning margin

UNIRB wins by 2+
27%
Atlanta wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

UNIRB 1+ goals
84%
UNIRB 2+ goals
54%
UNIRB 3+ goals
27%
Atlanta 1+ goals
73%
Atlanta 2+ goals
37%
Atlanta 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

UNIRB (draw refunded)
64%
Atlanta (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

UNIRB at home — creates 2.46, concedes 0.77 · 13 matches

Atlanta away — creates 1.83, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

UNIRB attack 2.46 + Atlanta defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.81

Atlanta attack 1.83 + UNIRB defence 0.77 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

UNIRB scores more
49%
level
23%
Atlanta scores more
28%

UNIRB at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "UNIRB will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: UNIRB vs Atlanta

UNIRB beat Atlanta 2-1 in Baiano - 2 on March 24, 2019.

The match was played at Estádio Antônio de Figueiredo Carneiro in Alagoinhas, Bahia.