Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Atlanta vs UNIRB — Baiano - 2 2019

Atlanta
Atlanta
FT
1 – 1
UNIRB
UNIRB
4/28/2019Baiano - 2Baiano - 2 · Round 8Estádio Municipal Pedro Caetano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Atlanta46%
×Draw33%
UNIRB21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlanta
1.08
UNIRB
0.63

Atlanta creates 71% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 12 away

creates per match

Atlanta
1.00
UNIRB
0.58

allows per match

Atlanta
0.67
UNIRB
1.17

finishing

Atlanta+0.00on par
UNIRB+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Under
  • Under75
  • Over25

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

69%No
  • No69
  • Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlanta ↓

UNIRB →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
51%49%2.5
25%75%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Atlanta or draw
79%
Atlanta or UNIRB
67%
Draw or UNIRB
54%

Winning margin

Atlanta wins by 2+
19%
UNIRB wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Atlanta 1+ goals
66%
Atlanta 2+ goals
29%
Atlanta 3+ goals
10%
UNIRB 1+ goals
47%
UNIRB 2+ goals
13%
UNIRB 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Atlanta (draw refunded)
68%
UNIRB (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
19%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlanta at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.67 · 6 matches

UNIRB away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.17 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlanta attack 1.00 + UNIRB defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.08

UNIRB attack 0.58 + Atlanta defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Atlanta scores more
46%
level
33%
UNIRB scores more
21%

Atlanta at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Atlanta will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Atlanta vs UNIRB

Atlanta and UNIRB drew 1-1 in Baiano - 2 on April 28, 2019.

The match was played at Estádio Municipal Pedro Caetano in Ipiaú, Bahia.