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Iliria Fushë-Krujë vs FK Kukesi — 1st Division 2019

Iliria Fushë-Krujë
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
FK Kukesi
FK Kukesi
3/1/20261st Division1st Division · Round 24

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Iliria Fushë-Krujë53%
×Draw26%
FK Kukesi21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Iliria Fushë-Krujë
1.51
FK Kukesi
0.84

Iliria Fushë-Krujë creates 80% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 35 away

creates per match

Iliria Fushë-Krujë
1.28
FK Kukesi
0.66

allows per match

Iliria Fushë-Krujë
1.03
FK Kukesi
1.74

finishing

Iliria Fushë-Krujë+0.00on par
FK Kukesi+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Iliria Fushë-Krujë ↓

FK Kukesi →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–18%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–112%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Iliria Fushë-Krujë or draw
79%
Iliria Fushë-Krujë or FK Kukesi
74%
Draw or FK Kukesi
47%

Winning margin

Iliria Fushë-Krujë wins by 2+
27%
FK Kukesi wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Iliria Fushë-Krujë 1+ goals
78%
Iliria Fushë-Krujë 2+ goals
44%
Iliria Fushë-Krujë 3+ goals
19%
FK Kukesi 1+ goals
57%
FK Kukesi 2+ goals
21%
FK Kukesi 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Iliria Fushë-Krujë (draw refunded)
72%
FK Kukesi (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Iliria Fushë-Krujë at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.03 · 32 matches

FK Kukesi away — creates 0.66, concedes 1.74 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Iliria Fushë-Krujë attack 1.28 + FK Kukesi defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.51

FK Kukesi attack 0.66 + Iliria Fushë-Krujë defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.84

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Iliria Fushë-Krujë scores more
53%
level
26%
FK Kukesi scores more
21%

Iliria Fushë-Krujë at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Iliria Fushë-Krujë will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Iliria Fushë-Krujë vs FK Kukesi

Iliria Fushë-Krujë and FK Kukesi drew 1-1 in 1st Division on March 1, 2026.