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FK Kukesi vs Iliria Fushë-Krujë — 1st Division 2019

FK Kukesi
FK Kukesi
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
12/7/20251st Division1st Division · Round 15Kukes Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

FK Kukesi41%
×Draw27%
Iliria Fushë-Krujë32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

FK Kukesi
1.33
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
1.14

FK Kukesi creates 17% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 32 away

creates per match

FK Kukesi
1.17
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
0.94

allows per match

FK Kukesi
1.34
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
1.50

finishing

FK Kukesi+0.00on par
Iliria Fushë-Krujë+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

FK Kukesi ↓

Iliria Fushë-Krujë →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

FK Kukesi or draw
68%
FK Kukesi or Iliria Fushë-Krujë
73%
Draw or Iliria Fushë-Krujë
59%

Winning margin

FK Kukesi wins by 2+
19%
Iliria Fushë-Krujë wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

FK Kukesi 1+ goals
74%
FK Kukesi 2+ goals
38%
FK Kukesi 3+ goals
15%
Iliria Fushë-Krujë 1+ goals
68%
Iliria Fushë-Krujë 2+ goals
32%
Iliria Fushë-Krujë 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

FK Kukesi (draw refunded)
56%
Iliria Fushë-Krujë (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

FK Kukesi at home — creates 1.17, concedes 1.34 · 35 matches

Iliria Fushë-Krujë away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.50 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

FK Kukesi attack 1.17 + Iliria Fushë-Krujë defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.33

Iliria Fushë-Krujë attack 0.94 + FK Kukesi defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.14

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

FK Kukesi scores more
41%
level
27%
Iliria Fushë-Krujë scores more
32%

FK Kukesi at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "FK Kukesi will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st Division: FK Kukesi 0–1 Iliria Fushë-Krujë

Iliria Fushë-Krujë beat FK Kukesi 1-0 in 1st Division on December 7, 2025.

The match was played at Kukes Arena.