Iliria Fushë-Krujë 2–1 Devolli: Result & Stats

Iliria Fushë-Krujë

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 1

Devolli

7/19/2020

1st Division · Relegation Round - 8Stadiumi Redi Maloku

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Iliria Fushë-Krujë50%

×Draw26%

Devolli24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Iliria Fushë-KrujëExpected goals in this matchDevolli

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.54

0.98

Iliria Fushë-Krujë

1.54

Devolli

0.98

Iliria Fushë-Krujë creates 57% more chances

Season form · 32 home / 15 away

1.28

creates per match

0.93

1.03

allows per match

1.80

creates per match

Iliria Fushë-Krujë

1.28

Devolli

0.93

allows per match

Iliria Fushë-Krujë

1.03

Devolli

1.80

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Iliria Fushë-Krujë+0.00on par

Devolli+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Iliria Fushë-Krujë ↓

Devolli →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Iliria Fushë-Krujë or draw

76%

Iliria Fushë-Krujë or Devolli

74%

Draw or Devolli

50%

Winning margin

Iliria Fushë-Krujë wins by 2+

26%

Devolli wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Iliria Fushë-Krujë 1+ goals

79%

Iliria Fushë-Krujë 2+ goals

45%

Iliria Fushë-Krujë 3+ goals

20%

Devolli 1+ goals

62%

Devolli 2+ goals

26%

Devolli 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Iliria Fushë-Krujë (draw refunded)

68%

Devolli (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Iliria Fushë-Krujë at home — creates 1.28, concedes 1.03 · 32 matches

Devolli away — creates 0.93, concedes 1.80 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Iliria Fushë-Krujë attack 1.28 + Devolli defence 1.80 → ÷2 → 1.54

Devolli attack 0.93 + Iliria Fushë-Krujë defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Iliria Fushë-Krujë scores more

50%

level

26%

Devolli scores more

24%

Iliria Fushë-Krujë at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Iliria Fushë-Krujë will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff