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Devolli vs Iliria Fushë-Krujë — 1st Division 2019

Devolli
Devolli
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
6/13/20201st Division1st Division · Relegation Round - 3Fusha Sportive Bilisht

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Devolli49%
×Draw24%
Iliria Fushë-Krujë26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Devolli
1.69
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
1.17

Devolli creates 44% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 32 away

creates per match

Devolli
1.87
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
0.94

allows per match

Devolli
1.40
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
1.50

finishing

Devolli+0.00on par
Iliria Fushë-Krujë+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Devolli ↓

Iliria Fushë-Krujë →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Devolli or draw
74%
Devolli or Iliria Fushë-Krujë
76%
Draw or Iliria Fushë-Krujë
51%

Winning margin

Devolli wins by 2+
26%
Iliria Fushë-Krujë wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Devolli 1+ goals
82%
Devolli 2+ goals
50%
Devolli 3+ goals
24%
Iliria Fushë-Krujë 1+ goals
69%
Iliria Fushë-Krujë 2+ goals
33%
Iliria Fushë-Krujë 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Devolli (draw refunded)
65%
Iliria Fushë-Krujë (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Devolli at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.40 · 15 matches

Iliria Fushë-Krujë away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.50 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Devolli attack 1.87 + Iliria Fushë-Krujë defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.69

Iliria Fushë-Krujë attack 0.94 + Devolli defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Devolli scores more
49%
level
24%
Iliria Fushë-Krujë scores more
26%

Devolli at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Devolli will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st Division: Devolli 1–2 Iliria Fushë-Krujë

Iliria Fushë-Krujë beat Devolli 2-1 in 1st Division on June 13, 2020.

The match was played at Fusha Sportive Bilisht in Bilisht.