Ikorodu City 1–2 Enugu Rangers: Result & Stats

Ikorodu City

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Enugu Rangers

M. Bada 58'

C. Nwobodo 52', 30'

5/24/2026

NPFL · Round 38Mobolaji Johnson Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Ikorodu City58%

×Draw25%

Enugu Rangers17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Ikorodu CityExpected goals in this matchEnugu Rangers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

0.71

Ikorodu City

1.58

Enugu Rangers

0.71

Ikorodu City creates 123% more chances

Season form · 38 home / 130 away

2.03

creates per match

0.71

allows per match

1.13

creates per match

Ikorodu City

2.03

Enugu Rangers

0.71

allows per match

Ikorodu City

0.71

Enugu Rangers

1.13

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Ikorodu City+0.00on par

Enugu Rangers+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ikorodu City ↓

Enugu Rangers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–111%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–15%

3–22%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

67%33%2.5

40%60%3.5

20%80%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Ikorodu City or draw

83%

Ikorodu City or Enugu Rangers

75%

Draw or Enugu Rangers

42%

Winning margin

Ikorodu City wins by 2+

31%

Enugu Rangers wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Ikorodu City 1+ goals

79%

Ikorodu City 2+ goals

47%

Ikorodu City 3+ goals

21%

Enugu Rangers 1+ goals

51%

Enugu Rangers 2+ goals

16%

Enugu Rangers 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Ikorodu City (draw refunded)

78%

Enugu Rangers (draw refunded)

22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ikorodu City at home — creates 2.03, concedes 0.71 · 38 matches

Enugu Rangers away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.13 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ikorodu City attack 2.03 + Enugu Rangers defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.58

Enugu Rangers attack 0.71 + Ikorodu City defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Ikorodu City scores more

58%

level

25%

Enugu Rangers scores more

17%

Ikorodu City at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Ikorodu City will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'

30'

C. Nwobodo

38'

M. Bada← F. Salami

38'

M. Malik← K. Briggs

44'

52'

C. Nwobodo

58'

M. Bada

65'

69'

Ikorodu

Enugu

33

27

17

23

25

4

8

6

16

24

⚽2

11

1

37

32

23

3

16

15

25

9

▼

Briggs

11

Ayodeji

26

▼

Salami

38'▲M. Bada←▼F. Salami

38'▲M. Malik←▼K. Briggs

Ikorodu City substitutes

22Ocheme27Ujunwa19Idoko6Ikechukwu8Bada18Adebayo24Tomiwa33OgbonnayaMathias40Malik

Manager: Ilechukwu Fidelis

Enugu Rangers substitutes

32Ishola29Akintola15Opara34Onyebuchi21Ogbodo13Ezechukwuma7Igwilo18Agu9Yusuf