Enugu Rangers 2–1 Ikorodu City: Result & Stats

Enugu Rangers

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Ikorodu City

C. Nwobodo 76'

G. Obaje 35'

R. Owolabi 90'

12/21/2025

NPFL · Round 18Nnamdi Azikiwe Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 38+ matches

Enugu Rangers61%

×Draw25%

Ikorodu City14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Enugu RangersExpected goals in this matchIkorodu City

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.56

0.60

Enugu Rangers

1.56

Ikorodu City

0.60

Enugu Rangers creates 160% more chances

Season form · 129 home / 38 away

1.61

creates per match

0.68

0.52

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Enugu Rangers

1.61

Ikorodu City

0.68

allows per match

Enugu Rangers

0.52

Ikorodu City

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Enugu Rangers+0.00on par

Ikorodu City+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Enugu Rangers ↓

Ikorodu City →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–17%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–18%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Enugu Rangers or draw

86%

Enugu Rangers or Ikorodu City

75%

Draw or Ikorodu City

39%

Winning margin

Enugu Rangers wins by 2+

33%

Ikorodu City wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Enugu Rangers 1+ goals

79%

Enugu Rangers 2+ goals

46%

Enugu Rangers 3+ goals

21%

Ikorodu City 1+ goals

45%

Ikorodu City 2+ goals

12%

Ikorodu City 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Enugu Rangers (draw refunded)

81%

Ikorodu City (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Enugu Rangers at home — creates 1.61, concedes 0.52 · 129 matches

Ikorodu City away — creates 0.68, concedes 1.50 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Enugu Rangers attack 1.61 + Ikorodu City defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.56

Ikorodu City attack 0.68 + Enugu Rangers defence 0.52 → ÷2 → 0.60

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Enugu Rangers scores more

61%

level

25%

Ikorodu City scores more

14%

Enugu Rangers at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Enugu Rangers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'

24'

35'

G. Obaje

49'

A. Balogun← C. Chidera Oparaocha

74'

J. Ogbonnaya←

76'

C. Nwobodo

80'

82'

D. Ibifubara← K. Onwe

82'

R. Owolabi← F. Temitope

87'

90+4'

90'

R. Owolabi

Enugu

Ikorodu

34

Atata

13

Ojetoye

37

Udoh

30

▼

21

23

18

25

▼

Temitope

7

▼

10

36

1

2

3

23

25

4

6

12

7

24

⚽

Nwobodo

11

⚽

Obaje

Manager: G. Nosike

Enugu Rangers substitutes

33Jimoh17Itodo22Ogbonda15Opara10Ugochukwu8Ebirim13Ezechukwuma16Adebayo18Gberefun

49'▲A. Balogun←▼C. Chidera Oparaocha

74'▲J. Ogbonnaya←▼—

82'▲D. Ibifubara←▼K. Onwe

82'▲R. Owolabi←▼F. Temitope

Ikorodu City substitutes

22Ocheme6Ikechukwu33Ogbonnaya38Ibifubara16Owolabi26Odugbemi29Balogun