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IK Frej vs IFK Luleå — Ettan - Norra 2019

IK Frej
IK Frej
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
IFK Luleå
IFK Luleå
11/1/2020Ettan - NorraEttan - Norra · Norra - 26Vikingavallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

IK Frej50%
×Draw22%
IFK Luleå28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

IK Frej
1.94
IFK Luleå
1.40

IK Frej creates 39% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 30 away

creates per match

IK Frej
1.87
IFK Luleå
1.33

allows per match

IK Frej
1.47
IFK Luleå
2.00

finishing

IK Frej+0.00on par
IFK Luleå+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IK Frej ↓

IFK Luleå →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

IK Frej or draw
72%
IK Frej or IFK Luleå
78%
Draw or IFK Luleå
50%

Winning margin

IK Frej wins by 2+
28%
IFK Luleå wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

IK Frej 1+ goals
86%
IK Frej 2+ goals
58%
IK Frej 3+ goals
30%
IFK Luleå 1+ goals
75%
IFK Luleå 2+ goals
41%
IFK Luleå 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

IK Frej (draw refunded)
64%
IFK Luleå (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IK Frej at home — creates 1.87, concedes 1.47 · 15 matches

IFK Luleå away — creates 1.33, concedes 2.00 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IK Frej attack 1.87 + IFK Luleå defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.94

IFK Luleå attack 1.33 + IK Frej defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

IK Frej scores more
50%
level
22%
IFK Luleå scores more
28%

IK Frej at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "IK Frej will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ettan - Norra: IK Frej 1–1 IFK Luleå

IK Frej and IFK Luleå drew 1-1 in Ettan - Norra on November 1, 2020.

The match was played at Vikingavallen in Täby.