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IFK Luleå vs IK Frej — Ettan - Norra 2019

IFK Luleå
IFK Luleå
FT
2 – 3
HT: 1 – 1
IK Frej
IK Frej
9/2/2020Ettan - NorraEttan - Norra · Norra - 15Nyabvallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

IFK Luleå43%
×Draw23%
IK Frej34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

IFK Luleå
1.76
IK Frej
1.55

IFK Luleå creates 14% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 15 away

creates per match

IFK Luleå
1.40
IK Frej
1.40

allows per match

IFK Luleå
1.70
IK Frej
2.13

finishing

IFK Luleå+0.00on par
IK Frej+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IFK Luleå ↓

IK Frej →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

IFK Luleå or draw
66%
IFK Luleå or IK Frej
77%
Draw or IK Frej
57%

Winning margin

IFK Luleå wins by 2+
23%
IK Frej wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

IFK Luleå 1+ goals
83%
IFK Luleå 2+ goals
52%
IFK Luleå 3+ goals
26%
IK Frej 1+ goals
79%
IK Frej 2+ goals
46%
IK Frej 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

IFK Luleå (draw refunded)
56%
IK Frej (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
55%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IFK Luleå at home — creates 1.40, concedes 1.70 · 30 matches

IK Frej away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.13 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IFK Luleå attack 1.40 + IK Frej defence 2.13 → ÷2 → 1.76

IK Frej attack 1.40 + IFK Luleå defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

IFK Luleå scores more
43%
level
23%
IK Frej scores more
34%

IFK Luleå at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "IFK Luleå will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ettan - Norra: IFK Luleå 2–3 IK Frej

IK Frej beat IFK Luleå 3-2 in Ettan - Norra on September 2, 2020.

The match was played at Nyabvallen in Luleå.