IK brage 2–4 Ostersunds FK: Result & Stats

IK brage

FT

2 – 4

HT: 1 – 2

Ostersunds FK

J. Skille 79'

A. Lundin 44'

E. Navassardian 90', 84'

A. Stensrud 40', 12'

5/13/2026

Superettan · Round 7Domnarvsvallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

IK brage45%

×Draw23%

Ostersunds FK32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IK brageExpected goals in this matchOstersunds FK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.80

1.50

IK brage

1.80

Ostersunds FK

1.50

IK brage creates 20% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 13 away

1.42

creates per match

1.20

1.81

allows per match

2.19

creates per match

IK brage

1.42

Ostersunds FK

1.20

allows per match

IK brage

1.81

Ostersunds FK

2.19

-0.02on par

finishing

-0.74scores less than expected

finishing

IK brage-0.02on par

Ostersunds FK-0.74scores less

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IK brage ↓

Ostersunds FK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

IK brage or draw

68%

IK brage or Ostersunds FK

77%

Draw or Ostersunds FK

55%

Winning margin

IK brage wins by 2+

24%

Ostersunds FK wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

IK brage 1+ goals

83%

IK brage 2+ goals

54%

IK brage 3+ goals

27%

Ostersunds FK 1+ goals

78%

Ostersunds FK 2+ goals

44%

Ostersunds FK 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

IK brage (draw refunded)

58%

Ostersunds FK (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IK brage at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.81 · 10 matches

Ostersunds FK away — creates 1.20, concedes 2.19 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IK brage attack 1.42 + Ostersunds FK defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.80

Ostersunds FK attack 1.20 + IK brage defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

IK brage scores more

45%

level

23%

Ostersunds FK scores more

32%

IK brage at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "IK brage will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

12'

A. Stensrud↳ H. Azzi

40'

A. Stensrud

44'

A. Lundin↳ G. Nordh

62'

H. Brkic← G. Granstrom

62'

L. Bozickovic← E. Ozkan

63'

O. Stark← G. Berggren

74'

M. Larsen← A. Lundin

74'

J. Skille← P. Jonsson

75'

E. Navassardian← A. Stensrud

75'

D. Molls← A. Begic

78'

Curtis Edwards

79'

J. Skille↳ O. Stark

82'

Edgar Sarkis Navassardian

84'

E. Navassardian

90'

A. A. Qasem← Y. Adjoumani

90'

E. Navassardian↳ L. Bozickovic

Possession

Statistics

IKOstersunds

Overview

44%Possession56%

1Corners3

Shots

4On Target4

2Off Target5

0Blocked0

Passing

44%Possession56%

Discipline

0Yellow Cards2

0Red Cards0