IK brage 0–2 Ostersunds FK: Result & Stats

IK brage

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Ostersunds FK

J. Kirby 67'

S. Marklund 37'

5/5/2025

Superettan · Round 6Domnarvsvallen

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 10+ matches

IK brage44%

×Draw23%

Ostersunds FK33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

IK brageExpected goals in this matchOstersunds FK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.73

1.48

IK brage

1.73

Ostersunds FK

1.48

IK brage creates 17% more chances

Season form · 10 home / 12 away

1.42

creates per match

1.16

1.81

allows per match

2.04

creates per match

IK brage

1.42

Ostersunds FK

1.16

allows per match

IK brage

1.81

Ostersunds FK

2.04

-0.02on par

finishing

-0.74scores less than expected

finishing

IK brage-0.02on par

Ostersunds FK-0.74scores less

Total goals

Over62
Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

IK brage ↓

Ostersunds FK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

62%38%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

IK brage or draw

67%

IK brage or Ostersunds FK

77%

Draw or Ostersunds FK

56%

Winning margin

IK brage wins by 2+

23%

Ostersunds FK wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

IK brage 1+ goals

82%

IK brage 2+ goals

52%

IK brage 3+ goals

25%

Ostersunds FK 1+ goals

77%

Ostersunds FK 2+ goals

43%

Ostersunds FK 3+ goals

19%

Draw no bet

IK brage (draw refunded)

57%

Ostersunds FK (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

IK brage at home — creates 1.42, concedes 1.81 · 10 matches

Ostersunds FK away — creates 1.16, concedes 2.04 · 12 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

IK brage attack 1.42 + Ostersunds FK defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.73

Ostersunds FK attack 1.16 + IK brage defence 1.81 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

IK brage scores more

44%

level

23%

Ostersunds FK scores more

33%

IK brage at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "IK brage will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

23

A. Suljic

Ostersunds FK · D

7.9

Match Events

36'

Jörgen Teodor Wålemark

37'

S. Marklund↳ N. Perry

43'

Kalipha Jawla

57'

G. Nordh← P. Jonsson

57'

N. Astrand John← L. Konjuhi

62'

H. Brkic← G. Berggren

65'

Filip Trpčevski

65'

J. Kirby← K. Jawla

67'

J. Kirby↳ T. Johansson

75'

M. Larsen← J. Stensson

75'

A. Muhsin← A. Lundin

78'

M. Oluwayemi← N. Perry

90+2'

S. Anyanwu← S. Marklund

90+2'

E. Navassardian← T. Johansson

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

IKOstersunds

Overview

38%Possession62%

9Total Shots15

0.91Expected Goals (xG)3.05

2Corners3

15Fouls14

Shots

9Total Shots15

2On Target6

6Off Target8

1Blocked1

5Inside Box12

4Outside Box3

Passing

38%Possession62%

371Total Passes561

285Accurate Passes483

77%Pass Accuracy86%

Goalkeeping

4Saves2

Discipline

15Fouls14

2Yellow Cards1

0Red Cards0

0Offsides1

Match Recap: IK brage vs Ostersunds FK

Ostersunds FK beat IK brage 2-0 in Superettan on May 5, 2025.

Goals: S. Marklund (37'), J. Kirby (67').

Ostersunds FK controlled possession (62%) and registered 15 shots to 9.

The match was played at Domnarvsvallen in Borlange.

IK brage vs Ostersunds FK — Superettan 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Player of the match

Match Events

Head to Head

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

Match Recap: IK brage vs Ostersunds FK